This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers…
- Donald Trump's declining job approval — offset by one key group where he's been gaining strength
- How Americans rate the government's response to fatal Texas flooding
- The share of Americans who approve of "Alligator Alcatraz"
- Widespread support for the government releasing all documents related to Jeffrey Epstein
- Where Americans rate JD Vance better than Trump
Trump approval
- 41% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of Donald Trump's job performance, and 55% strongly or somewhat disapprove
- This is the largest share of Americans who have disapproved of Trump's job performance so far in his second term as president
- Trump's net job approval (the percent who approve minus the percent who disapprove) of -14 is close to the lowest net approval Trump has ever recorded in an Economist / YouGov Poll in either his first or second term (-21, in November 2017)
- Trump's slump arises mainly from declines in approval among Democrats and Independents
- Approval of Trump's job performance among Democrats has fallen from 12% at the start of his second term to only 3% today
- Approval among Independents has fallen from 41% to 29%
- The share of Republicans who approve of Trump's job performance is essentially the same now as it was at the start of his term (94% vs. 92%)
- Self-identified MAGA Republicans — half (50%) of all Republicans — nearly unanimously approve of Trump's job performance (98%), and have consistently throughout his term
- Republicans who say they do not identify as MAGA began Trump's second term with 90% approval of Trump's job performance
- By mid-April only around 70% of non-MAGA Republicans approved of Trump
- Over the past six weeks, the share of non-MAGA Republicans who approve of Trump has risen from 70% to 85%
- A 15-percentage-point increase in Trump's approval among non-MAGA Republicans is equivalent to about a 2-point increase in his approval among all U.S. adult citizens
Flooding and climate change
- About half (52%) of Americans believe that most of the deaths resulting from recent flooding in Texas could have been avoided if the government had been better prepared; 29% think they were unavoidable
- 38% of Americans rate the government's response to the Texas floods as "poor"; 42% say the same about Trump's response, 36% say so about Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem's response, 31% do about Texas Governor Greg Abbott's, and 22% do about the response of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). For each, more Americans say the response was fair or poor than say it was excellent or good
- Very few Americans — 9% — think that FEMA should be eliminated, something Trump previously proposed; 10% think FEMA should be reduced, 30% think it should be kept the same, and 36% think it should be expanded
- Americans have similar views about whether to eliminate, cut, maintain, or expand the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
- A majority (64%) of Americans think that presidents should visit disaster sites to show solidarity with disaster victims, and a similar share — 65% — say Trump should travel to Texas to survey the damage and meet with people affected by recent flooding, which he did on Friday
- One in five Americans say they have personally evacuated their home due to severe weather such as a tornado, hurricane, wildfire, or flood
- 77% think that if the government in their local community issued an order to evacuate due to severe weather, they would definitely or probably leave; 13% say they definitely or probably would not
- Men are more likely than women (18% vs. 9%) to say they would likely not leave when facing an evacuation order. Republicans are more likely than Democrats (16% vs. 7%) to say they likely wouldn't leave; 15% of Independents say the same
- Two-thirds (67%) of Americans believe that the frequency of major natural disasters occurring globally has increased a lot or a little; 21% think it has stayed the same, and only 3% think it has decreased
- Most (54%) of Americans think that global warming has caused an increase in the number of natural disasters; 27% think it has not and 19% aren't sure
- 59% of Americans think that climate change is somewhat, mostly, or entirely responsible for the extent of recent flooding
Immigration and detention centers
- About half (52%) of Americans think that Trump's approach to immigration policy is too harsh; 36% think it is about right and 7% think it is too soft
- At the start of Trump's term, significantly fewer — 40% — thought his approach to immigration was too harsh; 43% thought it was about right and 4% said it was too soft. The largest shift has been among Independents: 57% currently think Trump's approach is too harsh, up from 36% in January
- A majority (54%) of Americans say that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) should not search and deport illegal immigrants who have not committed any crimes in the U.S.; 32% think these immigrants should be deported
- Most Democrats (88%) think non-criminal illegal immigrants should not be deported, while only 18% of Republicans agree; 65% think they should be deported
- A majority (71%) of Americans say that ICE officers should be required to wear uniforms when making arrests; 18% say they should not be required
- Opinions on this question have changed little since it was last asked in early June
- 52% say that when ICE agents are making arrests, they should not be allowed to wear masks that hide their identity; 36% say they should be allowed to do so
- Americans are more than twice as likely to say it is their view that illegal immigrants take jobs that Americans don't want as to say that illegal immigrants take jobs that are wanted by Americans (57% vs. 25%)
- Most Americans want the government to try to minimize mistakes in who it deports: 78% say it should try its best to ensure that no one is mistakenly deported, even if that means the process will take longer, while only 15% should deport immigrants as quickly as possible, even if that means it might make more mistakes in who it deports
- 44% of Americans think the government is currently making many mistakes in which people it is deporting; 19% think it is making some mistakes, 22% think it's making a few, and 6% think no mistakes are being made
- Most Americans (57%) believe that immigrants who are facing deportation should have the right to challenge their deportation in court; 30% think they should not have this right
- By 51% to 35%, Americans are more likely to strongly or somewhat disapprove than to approve of the opening of a migrant detention center in the Florida Everglades, nicknamed Alligator Alcatraz
- Democrats disapprove of the new detention center by 89% to 4%, while Republicans approve by 75% to 10%
- Nearly half (47%) of Americans believe that people in migrant detention centers in the U.S. are being treated too harshly; 29% think they are being treated about right and 5% think they are not being treated harshly enough
- By 58% to 22%, Americans say that the U.S. government should not be able to send immigrants to be detained indefinitely in prisons in foreign countries they are not from
- Half (50%) believe that detention conditions for those deported from the U.S. to El Salvador generally are too harsh; 21% think they are being treated about right and 3% think they are not being treated harshly enough
The Jeffrey Epstein case
- The vast majority (79%) of Americans — including 85% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans — believe that the government should release all documents it has about the Jeffrey Epstein case
- Two-thirds of Americans — including 82% of Democrats, 69% of Independents, and 50% of Republicans — think the government is currently covering up evidence it has about Epstein
- Another YouGov survey conducted last week found that 40% of Americans — including 69% of Democrats but only 7% of Republicans — think that Trump was personally involved in crimes allegedly committed by Epstein
- That survey also found that 45% of Americans — including 49% of Democrats and 39% of Republicans — are not at all confident that people connected with Epstein who are alleged to have committed sex crimes will be thoroughly investigated
- This marked a drop in confidence from when the same question was first asked in January: Then, 25% of Americans — including 16% of Democrats and 29% of Republicans — said they had no confidence that those connected to Epstein would be investigated
- More Americans think that Epstein was murdered (39%) than believe the government's ruling that he committed suicide (20%). Many (40%) say they are not sure
JD Vance
- 37% of Americans have a very or somewhat favorable view of Vice President JD Vance, and 51% have an unfavorable view of Vance
- 40% of Americans say Vance is qualified to be president, while 44% say he's not and 17% aren't sure
- Most Democrats say Vance is not qualified (79%), and only 9% say he is; 80% of Republicans say he is
- MAGA Republicans are more likely than are non-MAGA Republicans to say Vance is qualified (91% vs. 72%)
- Few Americans are very worried about Trump's health: 31% of Americans say Trump's health and age are severely limiting his ability to be president, while 59% say it's having little (26%) or no impact (34%)
- Among Independents and Republicans, people over 45 are more likely to say Trump's health and age are not affecting his presidency at all than are people under 45
- Younger and older Democrats have similar views to each other on this question
- Overall, Americans have similar views about Trump and Vance on a host of questions about qualities such as their temperament, likability, and honesty. The biggest difference is that more Americans say they're not sure about Vance's qualities than about Trump's qualities
- For example, 34% of Americans say Trump is honest and trustworthy, 55% say he isn't, and 10% aren't sure; a nearly identical 35% say Vance is honest, 45% say he isn't, and 20% aren't sure
- Among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, the share saying Trump is honest is similar to the share saying Vance is
- Americans say Trump is not honest and trustworthy by a net of 21 percentage points — meaning they are 21 points more likely to say he is not honest than to say he isn't — compared to a 10-point net view of Vance's dishonesty
- In contrast, Americans are more likely to rate Trump's leadership strength highly than they are to rate Vance's leadership highly
- 54% say Trump is a very or somewhat strong leader while 46% say he's a very or somewhat weak leader, a net of +8
- 50% say Vance is a strong leader and 50% say he's a weak leader, a net of 0
- Overall Americans rate Trump better than Vance by a net of 8 points on the question of leadership strength
- Democrats and Republicans particularly differ in their views of Trump's and Vance's presidential temperament and international crisis management
- About the temperament to be president, Republicans' net rating of Trump is 14 points better than their net rating of Vance, while Democrats' net rating of Vance is 15 points better than their net rating of Trump
- When it comes to confidence in their ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, Republicans prefer Trump by 15 net points, and Democrats prefer Vance by 12 net points
- This doesn't mean Democrats rate Vance highly, on this measure or others — far from it. But their ratings of Trump generally are even lower
— Carl Bialik contributed to this article
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
See the toplines and crosstabs for the July 11 - 14, 2025 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,680 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 32% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3.5%.
Image: Getty (Handout)
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