Editor's note: This article was originally published in The Surveyor, YouGov America's weekly email newsletter. It has been revised for publication here. Subscribe to The Surveyor for regular updates on YouGov's polling.
The U.S. government has been shut down for several days now, and there are a lot of things we don't yet know about how it will play out. But surveys from YouGov conducted on Wednesday, Oct. 1 and Thursday, October 2 give us a sense of how Americans are viewing the shutdown as it begins.
1. Most people don't expect it to last very long
About 4 in 10 Americans (41%) expect the government to be shut down for two weeks or less, including 16% who expect the shutdown to last for less than a week and 25% who expect it to be shut down for one to two weeks. Only 22% expect the shutdown to last three to four weeks (13%) or longer (9%). 37% of Americans aren't sure how long it will last.
Republicans are more likely than Democrats to expect a shutdown of two weeks or less (53% vs. 39%).
2. Many Americans aren't expecting to be personally affected
Only 11% of Americans say the shutdown will definitely affect them personally, while 25% say it will probably affect them. The 35% who say the shutdown will definitely or probably affect them is a smaller share of Americans than the 47% who say it will probably not affect them (33%) or definitely not affect them (14%).
Democrats are more likely to say the shutdown probably or definitely will affect them than to say it won't (48% vs. 34%). Republicans are much less likely to expect to be personally affected (26% think it will affect them and 61% think it won't).
Americans who are permanently disabled (40%) and those who are employed (39%) are more likely to expect to be personally affected than are those who are taking care of home or family (34%) or unemployed (32%). Most retirees think they won't be affected (28% say they definitely or probably will, while 58% say they won't).
3. Slightly more Americans blame Republicans than Democrats for the shutdown
Americans are split along party lines in how they assign responsibility for the shutdown. Overall, 45% of Americans say Donald Trump is very responsible for the shutdown, 45% say Congressional Republicans are, and 36% say Congressional Democrats are. Respondents were asked about each group's responsibility independently.
Only 12% of Democrats say Congressional Democrats are very responsible for the shutdown, while among Republicans 11% say Trump is very responsible and 9% say Congressional Republicans are. Majorities of Democrats say Trump (78%) and Congressional Republicans (75%) are very responsible, while a majority of Republicans say Congressional Democrats are very responsible (61%).
This partisanship only goes so far. While few Democrats say Congressional Democrats are "very responsible" for the shutdown, 62% say they're at least a little responsible. 45% of Republicans say Trump is at least a little responsible for the shutdown and 46% say Congressional Republicans are at least a little responsible.
See the results of these polls:
- Do you think that you will be personally affected by the government shutdown?
- How much do you think the country will be affected by the government shutdown?
- How long do you think the government shutdown will last?
- How responsible do you think Donald Trump is for causing the government shutdown?
- How responsible do you think Congressional Republicans are for causing the government shutdown?
- How responsible do you think Congressional Democrats are for causing the government shutdown?
Methodology: One Daily Questions survey was conducted online on October 1, 2025. among 2,368 U.S. adults. A second was conducted October 2 among 2,890 U.S. adults. The samples were weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. census region, and political party. The margin of error for the first survey is approximately 2.5%; for the second it is approximately 2.5%.
Image: Getty
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