This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers…
- Who is being blamed for the shutdown
- How it's affecting Americans
- What groups are behind Democrats' lead for the midterms
- New record lows for approval of Trump among three groups of Americans
- Negative sentiment about the economy and where it's headed
The government shutdown
- It has now been a week since the government shut down, and many Americans expect the shutdown to continue for a while: 24% say they expect it to last one to two weeks, 23% expect three to four weeks, and 13% expect it will go on for more than four weeks. Only 6% anticipated the shutdown would last less than a week
- More Americans disapprove than approve of how Trump is handling the government shutdown, and the same goes for Republicans and Democrats in Congress
- Republicans are more likely to approve of how members of their own party are handling the shutdown than Democrats are to approve of how their party is handling it
- More Americans say that Republicans in Congress and Trump are most responsible for the shutdown than say Democrats in Congress are (41% vs. 30%); 23% say the two parties are equally responsible
- Two questions asked Americans which party currently holds a majority in the Senate and House of Representatives. People who correctly say that both the House and Senate are controlled by Republicans blame Republicans in Congress and Trump more for the shutdown by a much larger margin (49% blame Republicans more vs. 34% who blame Democrats more) than do people who answer incorrectly or are not sure (22% vs. 21%). Equal shares of Democrats and Republicans (76%) correctly say that Republicans control both chambers of Congress
- Most Americans (63%) say that, given the choice of two options for how members of Congress should negotiate, "lawmakers should compromise to reach a budget agreement, even if it means sacrificing some priorities that they believe in," while 37% would prefer that lawmakers "fight for the priorities that they believe in, even if it means risking a government shutdown." Similar shares of Democrats (60%) and Republicans (65%) believe lawmakers should compromise on the budget
- 39% of Americans say they will personally be affected either a great deal (12%) or somewhat (28%) by a government shutdown; 30% say they will be affected a little and 30% say they will not be affected at all
- An AI-aided analysis of responses to an open-ended question about personal effects of the shutdown show that people are most often worried about lost or delayed income, including furloughs for federal workers, halted pay for the military, and stoppages for contractors. Many are also concerned about interruptions to benefits such as Social Security, SNAP/WIC, Medicaid, and Medicare. Many expect slower or inaccessible government services (IRS refunds, passports, loans, and permits), travel disruptions, and national park closures. There are also broader concerns, such as economic ripple effects in prices and jobs, and reduced safety and oversight. Some express strong feelings of stress and uncertainty
2026 House elections
- Democrats have a 5-point lead over Republicans in registered voters' preferences for the 2026 U.S. House elections: 44% say they would vote for the Democratic Party candidate and 39% for the Republican Party candidate, if the elections were held today
- 11% of registered voters aren't sure how they would vote, while 3% say they would not vote and 2% would vote for another candidate
- The 5-point advantage for Democrats is their largest lead since mid-August
- Democrats' 5-point lead is larger than the 1-point lead they held at this stage of the 2024 election cycle — a little more than a year before the election — but smaller than the 8-point lead Democrats had at this point in the 2022 cycle
- Democrats are drawing more support from their base than Republicans are from theirs
- Among registered voters who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, 88% say they'll vote for the Democratic Party candidate in the 2026 House elections, compared to 3% for the Republican Party candidate
- Among 2024 Trump voters, Republicans lead in House vote intent by 80% to 7%
- The shares of self-described liberal (93%) and very liberal (91%) registered voters who say they intend to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress are larger than the shares of conservative (80%) and very conservative (85%) voters who support the Republican candidate
- Republicans do better in 2026 House vote intent among registered voters who approve of Trump (91% of those who strongly approve of Trump's job performance plan to vote for Republicans in 2026 House races, as do 69% of those who somewhat approve), than do Democrats among voters who are critical of Trump (82% of those who strongly disapprove plan to vote for Democrats in 2026 House races, as do 32% of those who somewhat disapprove; 27% plan to vote Republican)
- But far fewer voters approve than disapprove of Trump's job performance (39% vs. 56%), so this support for Republican House candidates among Trump's loyalists doesn't prevent Democrats from leading overall
- Democrats lead Republicans among those who did not vote for president in 2024 (25% vs. 18%, with 33% not sure and 23% planning to not vote), and among those who didn't vote in the 2022 midterms (37% vs. 24%)
Trump approval
- 39% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of Donald Trump's job as president, while 56% disapprove — a net approval of -17
- -17 is among Trump's lowest net approvals during his two terms, but it's not a record low
- Trump's lowest net approval in his second term so far was -18, in the September 12 - 15 Economist / YouGov Poll
- But Trump has hit new second-term lows in net approval among several demographic groups
- 33% of women approve of Trump and 61% disapprove, a net approval of -28
- 43% of Americans 65 and older approve of Trump and 55% disapprove, a net approval of -13
- 25% of Hispanics approve of Trump and 71% disapprove, a net approval of -46
- All of those net approvals are down significantly from the start of Trump's second term, and are each the lowest Trump has received among those groups in his second term so far
Economic conditions
- Among the bearish economic indicators in this week's poll results: About half (49%) of Americans think that when children in the U.S. grow up, they will be worse off financially than their parents; only 13% expect they will be better off and 18% expect they will be about the same
- Democrats and Independents are somewhat more pessimistic than Republicans in their expectations of how today's children will fare relative to their parents
- Two-thirds (67%) of Americans believe that the gap between the richest and poorest Americans is increasing; only 3% think the gap is increasing and 21% say it is staying about the same
- Far more Democrats than Republicans believe the wealth gap is increasing (83% vs. 49%), but only very small shares in both parties believe it is decreasing (2% vs. 4%)
- Most Americans would not have an easy time paying an unexpected $1,000 expense; more say it would be very or somewhat difficult than say it would be easy (45% vs. 36%) and 19% say it would be impossible for them to do so
- People who identify as working class are especially likely to say it would be difficult (53%) or impossible (32%) for them to pay an unexpected $1,000 expense
- Two-thirds (68%) of Americans — including 88% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans — expect that prices for most products will increase in the next 12 months; only 9% of Americans anticipate that prices will decrease and 16% think they will stay the same
- Americans are divided on how the U.S. economy is doing in comparison to other countries in the world: 34% think it is doing much or somewhat better, 30% think it is doing worse, and 17% think it is doing about the same
- These views are split by party. Only 17% of Democrats say the U.S. economy is doing better than other countries and 44% say it is doing worse, while a majority of Republicans (61%) think it is doing better than other countries and only 13% say it is doing worse
- Americans are far more likely to say that Trump is more responsible for the current state of the economy than to say Joe Biden is (57% vs. 24%). The share saying responsibility lies more with Trump than with Biden has increased during Trump's second term but not changed much over the past month
Throughout this report, some numbers may appear to be off by 1 because of rounding
See the toplines and crosstabs for the October 4 - 6, 2025 Economist/YouGov Poll
Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,648 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, geographic region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 32% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3.5%.
Image: Getty (Andrew Harnik / Staff)
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