In the final days of the election, Connecticut offers the Democrats some good news as both the candidates for Governor and Senate hold leads over their Republican opponents. Among likely voters, Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Dan Malloy holds 4 point lead over Republican Tom Foley. The Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Richard Blumenthal has a slightly larger lead of 9 points among likely voters over his Republican opponent, former WWE executive Linda McMahon.
Senate
| Registered Voters | Likely Voters | |
|---|---|---|
Richard Blumenthal | 51% | 52% |
Linda McMahon | 42% | 43% |
Governor
| Registered Voters | Likely Voters | |
|---|---|---|
Dan Malloy | 47% | 48% |
Tom Foley | 43% | 44% |
Independents support for Democrats gives them the lead
Independents support Democrat for Senate, not Governor, in a state divided along gender lines With candidates from both parties in each race having consolidated their partisan base in these final days, the Independents spell the difference. Among likely voters, Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Dan Malloy trails Republican Tom Foley with Independents by 3 points, and as a result Malloy is clinging to a small lead overall. In the Senate race, Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a 10 point lead among Independent likely voters over Republican Linda McMahon, and as a result holds a comfortable lead overall. In Connecticut, the gender gap shapes both races. Among likely voters, Republican Gubernatorial candidate Foley holds a 30 point lead over Democrat Malloy among men, while Malloy lead Foley by 28 points among women. In the Senate race, among likely voters, Republican McMahon leads Democrat Blumenthal by 34 points among men, but trails Blumenthal among women by a whopping 41 points.
Methodology
Interviews with 1000 registered voters, including 783 likely voters, were conducted October 25-28, 2010, online using YouGov’s PollingPoint panel. YouGov uses a matched sample methodology that selects respondents to match the Connecticut registered voter population in terms of demographics (age, race, gender, education, employment status, income, marital status, children), past voting behavior, and political attitudes (interest in politics, party registration, and ideology).
