November 04, 2012, 4:30 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama holds a 15-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Connecticut, 54% Obama to 39% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 895 likely voters statewide. 

In Connecticut (Oct 31-Nov 3):
Among Independents, Obama leads Romney 48%-39%.
Obama leads in the New York suburbs (58%-34%), around Hartford (53%-40%), in the Eastern part of the state (55%-41%). Romney overwhelmingly leads in western Connecticut 64%-30%.
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3 
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3 
Barack Obama 53% 53% 54% 48% 43% 48%
Mitt Romney 40% 39% 39% 40% 43% 39%

In the state’s competitive U.S. Senate race, Democrat Chris Murphy has a nominal lead over Republican Linda McMahon, 46%-44%. 

The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012.

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey.

Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3.  Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 895 likely voters. Margin of error ±3.6% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters)

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters)

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).