November 04, 2012, 4:30 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama holds a strong 19-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Illinois, 57% Obama to 38% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 1,126 likely voters statewide.   

In Illinois (Oct 31-Nov 3):
Independents give Obama a 5-point lead, 48% for Obama and 43% for Romney.
Obama leads strongly in Chicago (80%-15%), and fairly strongly in the Cook Suburbs and Collar Counties (55%-41% and 53%-43% respectively), while Romney leads in the South (strongly, at 57%-38%) and North (nominally, at 49%-47%).
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-Nov 3 Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-Nov 3
Barack Obama 59% 58% 57% 46% 46% 48%
Mitt Romney 36% 38% 38% 45% 46% 43%

The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012. 

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3.  Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 1,126 likely voters. Margin of error ±3.3% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).