November 04, 2012, 4:30 PM GMT+0

Mitt Romney holds a 7-point lead in Indiana, at 51% to Romney and 44% to Barack Obama, in a YouGov poll of 768 likely voters statewide.

In Indiana (Oct 31-Nov 3):
Independents support Mitt Romney 53% to 38%, slightly up from 51% to 39% in early October.
Mitt Romney has a strong lead in the Indianapolis Suburbs (61%-34%), and South (56%-38%) regions.  Barack Obama has a strong lead in Indianapolis (64%-32%) and is just ahead in the NW (49%-46%).
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3
Barack Obama 45% 41% 44% 41% 39% 38%
Mitt Romney 50% 53% 51% 50% 51% 53%

Democrat Joe Donnelly has now taken a narrow 2-point lead, 47%-45%, over Republican Richard Mourdock who held 45%-41% lead in early October in the race to succeed Sen. Richard Lugar

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3.  Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 768 likely voters. Margin of error ±4.1% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).