Democratic President Barack Obama holds a 7-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Michigan, 51% Obama to 44% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 1,091 likely voters statewide.

In Michigan (Oct 31-Nov 3):
Among Independents, Romney has a marginal lead 46%-42% over Obama.
Obama enjoys a very wide 68%-25% lead in Wayne County (Detroit) and a solid advantage in Lansing/Ann Arbor (51%-44%).  Romney leads in northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, 51% Romney-44% Obama, and in Grand Rapids, 53% Romney-44% Obama. It is a close contest in Oakland/Macomb with Obama leading nominally (47%-45%).
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3 
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3 
Barack Obama 51% 52% 51% 46% 46% 42%
Mitt Romney 42% 42% 44% 43% 43% 46%

Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow leads 53%-41% over Republican Senate candidate Peter Hoekstra among likely voters.  

The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3.  Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 1,091 likely voters. Margin of error ±3.3% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).

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