North Carolina

November 04, 2012, 4:30 PM GMT+0

Republican challenger Mitt Romney has fought Democratic President Barack Obama to a nominal lead in the Tar Heel state, 49% Romney to 47% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 1,500 likely voters statewide. 

In North Carolina (Oct 31-Nov 3):
Romney enjoys a large lead among likely voters who are Independents, 54% for Romney and 38% for Obama.
Obama enjoys a solid 57%-39% advantage in the Raleigh-Durham-Triangle area, and also leads marginally 50%-47% around Charlotte.  Romney leads marginally in the Piedmont/Central area (51%-45%) and east North Carolina (51%-46%) and Romney runs even stronger in western North Carolina (58%-37%). 
Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)
  Total Independents
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3
Sept 7-14 Oct 4-11 Oct 31-
Nov 3
Barack Obama 46% 48% 47% 31% 39% 38%
Mitt Romney 48% 49% 49% 57% 56% 54%

The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching.  A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3.  Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 1,500 likely voters. Margin of error ±2.8% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).