YouGov

This poll is a part of the CBS News/YouGov Tracker of convention delegates, which measures the estimated winner of Democratic convention delegates in early primary and caucus states.

Senator Elizabeth Warren is rising in the Democratic race for president and leads former Vice President Joe Biden in projected delegates, according to the fourth wave of the CBS/YouGov Delegate Model

The CBS/YouGov Delegate Model tracks the estimated winner of convention delegates in early primary and caucus states. America is more than four months away from the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the Democratic process of selecting a nominee on February 3—but the polling data indicates how the race is evolving.

Warren holds an estimated 720 early delegates, and Biden is narrowly behind her with an estimated 577 delegates of the 1,494 available through Super Tuesday. That diverges from last month’s projection, which showed Biden holding more estimated early delegates than Warren. Following Biden this month is Senator Bernie Sanders, who has dropped to 159 estimated delegates. Those three remain the only candidates with triple digits, and they are outpacing the estimations for former Representative Beto O’Rourke (30), Senator Amy Klobuchar (5), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (3).

Early caucus and primary delegate projections from CBS News and YouGovIn the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, Biden and Warren remain in the lead with Sanders slipping to the third spot. In Iowa, 22 percent of voters list Biden and Warren as their first choice. Sanders is listed by 21 percent, and Buttigieg has gained since last month (14%) and lands in fourth place for the first-in-the-nation caucus. 

Iowa's first choice for a democratic presidential nominee, according to CBS News and YouGovIn New Hampshire, Warren (32%) slightly leads Biden (24%) as the top choice. Biden, however, carries a strong lead in South Carolina where 43 percent list him as their preferred nominee. That’s compared with 18 percent who select Warren.

Panelists were also asked to share their opinions on the ongoing impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump and whether he neglected his oath of office in asking Ukraine to investigate his political rival. A majority of Americans (63%) say the Trump administration should cooperate with the impeachment inquiry, but most Republicans disagree. The politicization of impeachment notwithstanding, a majority of Americans say a US president should not be able to ask other countries for help with domestic election campaigns (61%).

Related: The 2020 Delegate Tracker shows Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren lead 

Methodology (Delegate Model): This CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov between October 3 and 11, 2019. A representative sample of 16,500 registered voters was selected in 18 states expected to hold early primaries and caucuses (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia). This sample includes 7,958 self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote. The margin of error is +/- 1.6 percentage points.

Methodology (Impeachment): The CBS News survey is conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,501 U.S. residents interviewed between October 8-11, 2019. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is +/- 2.1 points.

Image: Getty

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