YouGov

This poll is a part of the CBS News/YouGov Tracker of convention delegates, which measures the estimated winner of Democratic convention delegates in early primary and caucus states.

On March 3, 2020—next year’s Super Tuesday—14 states will hold primary elections to decide their preferred presidential candidates. These contests draw the focus of some candidates more than others and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has already spent more than any Democratic candidate on TV ads in the participating Super Tuesday states.

According to a December CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker, Bloomberg (4%) currently stands in fifth place across the Super Tuesday states. Joe Biden (28%), Elizabeth Warren (25%), and Bernie Sanders (20%) poll as the top first choice nominees among registered Democratic voters in the 14 states.

In the same Super Tuesday poll, Pete Buttigieg is fourth in vote share at 9 percent, followed by Michael Bloomberg, Andrew Yang (3%), Amy Klobuchar (3%), and Cory Booker (3%). Despite announcing his bid before Bloomberg, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, polls at 1 percent in the participating Super Tuesday states.



These contests will likely trim the crowded Democratic field and move the election narrative to measure who can beat President Donald Trump next November.

On this front, less than half of registered Democratic voters in Super Tuesday states say any of the Democratic candidates will probably win against the sitting president. Still, Biden fares best in this measure—with two in five registered Democatic voters saying he would probably win against Trump. At least three in 10 say Sanders (33%) and Warren (30%) would probably win against Trump and that rate drops to less than one in five who think Bloomberg (17%) and Buittigieg can do the same (16%).



Methodology: This CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov between December 3-11, 2019. A representative sample of 21,461 registered voters was selected in 14 states expected to hold primaries on Super Tuesday (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota,  North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia). This sample includes 10,379 self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±1.3 percentage points.

Read the full results from the CBS News/YouGov tracker here

Graphics courtesy of CBS News and cover image courtesy of Getty. 

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