Former Vice President Joe Biden has a comfortable lead over Senator Bernie Sanders ahead of Michigan’s Democratic primary for president on Tuesday, according to a Yahoo News/YouGov poll of likely Democratic primary voters.
State sample sizes are small, but the Yahoo News/YouGov poll gives insight into how three key swing states — Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — are currently viewing the Democratic primary race. Biden holds the advantage in all three states against Sanders, but his strongest lead comes from the state where he was born and raised: Pennsylvania (59% to 31%).
Political sentiment in the trio of Rust Belt states will be closely watched ahead of the 2020 general election because they helped hand President Donald Trump his presidential victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. They are often categorized as swing states because President Barack Obama won each of them in 2012 and 2008.
The Yahoo News/YouGov Poll indicates that Biden and Sanders would have a close fight against Trump to win back the swing states in the general election. Both Biden and Sanders lead Trump 45-41 across all voters in these three states, but the margin of error (+/- 3.3) means no candidate is running away with the race quite yet.
About half of Michigan voters disapprove (52%) of the way Trump is handling his job, while 45 percent approve. That aligns with the most-recent national numbers for his job approval: a majority (55%) disapprove and 45 percent approve. About half of Michigan voters (51%) say that things in the United States are “off on the wrong track” while about one-third (35%) believe the country is “generally headed in the right direction.”
Additional data from the Yahoo News/YouGov Poll indicates that a majority of Michigan voters (55%) are “extremely enthusiastic” or “very enthusiastic” about voting in the upcoming 2020 presidential election. About one in five (21%) say they are “not too enthusiastic” or “not enthusiastic at all” about voting in the election.
Methodology: This Yahoo News/YouGov survey is based on 1,750 interviews of US registered voters, including an oversample of 150 registered voters in Wisconsin. The battleground states included Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This survey was conducted from March 6 - 8, 2020. The margin of error is +/- 3.3% points. On the state subsamples +/- 5.1% (Pennsylvania), 5.8% (Michigan), and 6.4% (Wisconsin).