The trial heat numbers from the latest Economist/YouGov Poll have not shifted significantly from previous weeks. Biden continues to lead Trump among women (51% vs 38%), adults under 30 years old (51% vs 31%), Black Americans (74% vs 8%), Hispanic Americans (53% vs 31%), and Americans with some college education (48% vs 37%). Biden also maintains a strong lead among moderate voters (55% vs 30%).
Trump leads Biden among white Americans (49% vs 42%), adults over 65 years old (53% vs 40%), and those who do not have a college education (49% vs 41%). This week, the incumbent president also leads slightly in the Midwest (46% vs 42%), though Biden is ahead in other regions.
Trended data indicates that Biden has maintained a slight but consistent lead over Trump since The Economist/YouGov began polling the candidates’ trial heat in early March 2020. Biden’s last primary opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders, ceded the Democratic nomination on April 8.
Methodology: The Economist survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,500 U.S. adult citizens interviewed online between July 12 - 14, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the US Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 Presidential vote, registration status, geographic region, and news interest. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all US citizens. The margin of error is approximately 3.3% for the overall sample.
US Citizens were asked, “If an election for president were going to be held now and the Democratic nominee was Joe Biden and the Republican nominee was Donald Trump, would you vote for... ” Response options: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Other, Not Sure, and I would not vote.