Biden holds 9 point lead over Trump in Economist/YouGov trial heat

Linley SandersData Journalist
July 29, 2020, 7:00 PM UTC

Democrat Joe Biden maintains a nine-point national lead over President Donald Trump among registered voters for the November 2020 election, 49 percent to 40 percent.  

The trial heat numbers from the latest Economist/YouGov Poll have not shifted significantly in recent weeks. Biden continues to boast a strong lead among Black Americans (81% vs 5%), Hispanic Americans (59% vs 25%), adults under 30 years old (54% vs 23%), women voters (51% vs 37%), and moderate voters (56% vs 29%).  

Biden leads in most regions of the country with a strong showing in the Northeast (50% vs 35%) and West (51% vs 36%). The Midwest favors Biden slightly (49% vs 42%), and the South is split (46% vs 45%). 

Trump continues to lead Biden among white Americans (48% vs 42%) and adults over 65 years old (52% vs 43%). In previous weeks, Trump has remained the steady choice of Americans who do not have a college education. However, this week, Biden has pulled slightly ahead among this education group (45% vs 42%).  

Both candidates maintain strong margins with their political parties. Trump leads Republicans (88% vs 6%) and Biden leads Democrats (89% vs 4%). This week, Trump slightly leads among Independent voters (40% vs 38%).  

See the toplines and crosstabs from this week’s Economist/YouGov Poll 

Related: Explore the Economist/YouGov trended data on 2020 presidential voting intention  

MethodologyThis Economist survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,500 U.S. adult citizens interviewed online between July 26 - 28, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the US Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 Presidential vote, registration status, geographic region, and news interest. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all US citizens. The margin of error is approximately 3.5% for the overall sample.   

US Citizens were asked, “If an election for president were going to be held now and the Democratic nominee was Joe Biden and the Republican nominee was Donald Trump, would you vote for... ” Response options:  Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Other, Not Sure, and I would not vote. 

Image: Getty