Biden leads in CBS Battleground Tracker of the Electoral College

Linley SandersData Journalist
August 16, 2020, 4:20 PM UTC

Democratic presidential candidate, Joe Biden, would hold the edge in capturing the Electoral College — and therefore the presidency — if the election were held today, according to the latest data in the CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker.

The statistical model currently gives Biden the lead over President Donald Trump in enough states to reach 279 electoral votes, which is slightly higher than the 270 needed to win. Trump is projected to win 163 electoral votes, based on August estimates. Biden shows particular strength in three key Midwestern states that Trump won in the 2016 election: Michigan (53% vs 45%), Pennsylvania (52% vs 46%), and Wisconsin (52% vs 45%).

The CBS News Battleground Tracker currently shows six toss-up states — Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Arizona — that are worth a total of 95 electoral votes. This leaves several paths for President Trump to narrow the electoral gap between himself and Biden, especially as Election Day nears.

The CBS News Battleground Tracker model, according to August estimates

Biden leads Trump by 10 points among likely voters nationwide, according to the CBS News/YouGov Poll. He boasts a significant margin among Hispanic Americans (60% vs 31%), Black Americans (82% vs 8%), suburban voters (53% vs 40%), and women (55% vs 37%) who are likely voters. President Trump leads among white likely voters (50% vs 42%).

Who likely voters are supporting for the 2020 presidential election based on the CBS News Battleground tracker

Related: When Americans think the 2020 presidential election winner will be announced 

See the crosstabs from this CBS News/YouGov Poll and learn more about the CBS News Battleground Tracker 

MethodologyThis CBS News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 2,210 US registered voters interviewed between August 12-14, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote and registration status. The margin of error is ± 2.4 points. 

Images: Getty and CBS News