During a press conference on September 24, a reporter asked President Donald Trump if he would commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he lost the election to Joe Biden.
The president decline to commit to this, instead saying "Well, we'll have to see what happens.”
According to data from The Economist and YouGov, more than three quarters of likely voters (78%) have heard at least a little bit about this event. Nearly all (86%) Biden supporters say they’ve heard about Trump’s comments, while slightly fewer (72%) Trump supporters say the same.
Fewer than half of voters say that it’s very likely (25%) or somewhat likely (21%) that there would be a peaceful transition of power. Almost as many (43%) believe that it’s not very likely (24%) or not likely at all (19%).
Just a third of Biden voters (33%) think a normal transition is likely in the event of their candidate’s victory. Most Trump voters (60%) don’t think the president’s comments suggest a disruptive transfer of power is likely.
Methodology: The Economist survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,500 registered voters interviewed online between September 27 – 30, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the US Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 Presidential vote, registration status, geographic region, and news interest. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all US citizens. The margin of error is approximately 3.8% for the overall sample.