Iowa: Biden and Trump level

YouGov
October 11, 2020, 3:18 PM UTC

Democrat Theresa Greenfield leads Republican incumbent Joni Ernst in US Senate race

Donald Trump and Joe Biden are level in Iowa, the latest CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker shows. 

Both have the support of 49% of the state’s likely voters. There is a clear gender divide, with Biden leading among women (53% to 44%) while Trump holds the same lead among men (53% to 44%).

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Donald Trump’s backers are primarily motivated to support the president because they like him (64%), with notably smaller groups voting for him in order to oppose Joe Biden (24%) or because he is the Republican candidate (12%). Meanwhile, the Democratic nominee’s support is largely driven by opposition to Donald Trump (58%), with far fewer saying they are backing him because they like him (27%), or because he is the Democratic standard bearer (14%). 

Two in five (42%) of Iowa’s likely voters plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, including half (52%) of Democrats, two in five (41%) Independents and a third (33%) of Republicans. Similar numbers (40%) are looking to vote in person on Election Day, a figure that includes over half (54%) of Republicans, two in five (39%) Independents and under three in ten (28%) Democrats. The remaining 18% are planning on voting in person before November 3rd, including equal proportions of Democrats and Independents (20%) but fewer Republicans (13%). 

In Iowa’s US Senate race, Democrat challenger Theresa Greenfield holds a four-point advantage over Republican incumbent Joni Ernst, leading 47% to 43%. Greenfield leads among women (50% to 37%) and Independents (46% to 39%) while Ernst leads among men (49% to 43%). 

See the toplines from this week’s CBS News/YouGov Poll 

MethodologyThis survey was conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between October 6-9, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,048 registered voters in Iowa. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.5 points in Iowa.