Nearly one in five registered voters (19%) in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll say they have already voted in the presidential election. The high early turnout numbers come during an election year where early voting is happening at a record pace, according to the U.S. Elections Project, which shows that 9.3 million Americans have cast a ballot as of October 11.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the early turnout for Biden supporters — nearly nine in 10 (92%) who support the Democrat approve of voting-by-mail. Two-thirds (67%) of Trump supporters disapprove.
Half (52%) of Biden’s supporters have either voted by mail already or intend to, while nearly three in 10 (29%) plan to vote in-person prior to November 3. If those numbers hold, it would mean about four in five (82%) votes for Joe Biden will be cast before Election Day. Fewer than one in five (18%) supporters of the Democrat plan to vote in-person on Election Day.
Most Trump supporters (55%) also intend to either vote by mail (31%) or in-person before the election (24%). However, the largest portion of those who intend to vote for the incumbent say they will do so in-person on Election Day (45%).
Methodology: The Economist survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,500 registered voters interviewed online between October 11 - 13, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the US Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 Presidential vote, registration status, geographic region, and news interest. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all US citizens. The margin of error is approximately 4% for the overall sample.