The latest CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 50% to 47% among likely voters in Arizona — a lead within the margin of error. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won the state by three points.
Biden has a clear lead with women voters (53% to 41%) while President Trump holds the edge among men (49% to 45%). The bulk of the Democrat’s support in Arizona comes from those backing him in order to oppose Donald Trump (55%), while others are supporting him because they like him (29%) or because he is the Democratic nominee (16%).
Two-thirds (67%) of President Trump’s supporters are voting for him because they like him as a person. Notably smaller groups say their goal is to oppose Biden (23%), and 9% say they are voting for him as the Republican Party’s choice.
Most likely voters in the state (97%) have decided how they will vote with two weeks, with 96% of those voting for Biden or Trump saying they probably won’t change their choice, and just 4% saying they still might. Almost all Democrats (94%) and Republicans (98%) have decided, as have around 97% of Independents.
Three in five (63%) of Arizona’s likely voters plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, including four-fifths (83%) of Democrats, around half (58%) of Independents and slightly fewer (46%) Republicans. One in five (20%) are looking to vote in person on Election Day, a figure that contains one-third (32%) of Arizona Republicans, one-quarter (24%) Independents, and about one in 13 (7%) Democrats. The remaining 16% are planning on voting in person before November 3rd, which is evenly split between Independents (17%), Democrats (10%) and Republicans (22%).
In Arizona’s US Senate race, Democratic challenger Mark Kelly holds a 11-point advantage over Republican incumbent Martha McSally, leading 52% to 41%. The candidates are each being backed by a majority of their parties’ supporters (96% of Democrats are supporting Kelly and 88% of Republicans are supporting McSally), while Kelly holds a slim advantage among Independents (47% to 40%).
Methodology: This survey was conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between October 13 – 17, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,087 registered voters in Arizona. The margin of error for registered voters is ±4.1 points in Arizona. For the trial heat reported in this article, the numbers for “presidential vote intention with leaners allocated” were used.