Wisconsin: Joe Biden holds five-point lead over Donald Trump

YouGov
October 18, 2020, 3:14 PM UTC

The latest CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker shows Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 51% to 46% among likely voters in Wisconsin — a state that the President won by less than one percentage point in 2016.  

Choice for President: Wisconsin Likely Voters (With Leaners)

Biden has a clear lead with women voters (56% to 42%) while President Trump holds the edge among men (51% to 46%). The Democrat’s support is divided between those backing him in order to oppose Donald Trump (49%), those supporting him because they like him (33%), and those who plan to vote for him because he is the Democratic nominee (18%). 

Three in five (60%) Wisconsin likely voters now say Trump is most concerned about the wealthy and elite, while a plurality (47%) believe Biden is most focused on the middle class. Most Wisconsin voters (58%) like how Biden handles himself personally, while two-thirds (68%) dislike how Trump handles himself personally.  

But that is not necessarily the case for the president's supporters. They are motivated to vote for Trump overwhelmingly because they do like him (62%), with notably smaller groups voting for him in order to oppose Joe Biden (24%) or because he is the Republican nominee (14%).  

Almost four in five (79%) likely voters in the state who have not yet cast their ballot have decided how they will vote, with 16% saying they probably won’t change their choice, and 5% saying they still might. Almost all Democrats (86%) and Republicans (78%) have decided, as have around three quarters (73%) of Independents. 

Two in five (43%) of Wisconsin’s likely voters plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, including over three in five (63%) of Democrats, over a third (36%) of Independents and three in ten (30%) Republicans. A similar proportion (40%) are looking to vote in person on Election Day, a figure that contains over half (55%) of Republicans, two in five (44%) Independents and just a fifth (20%) of Democrats. The remaining 17% are planning on voting in person before November 3rd, which is relatively evenly split between Independents (20%), Democrats (17%) and Republicans (15%). 

See the toplines from this week’s CBS News/YouGov Poll 

Methodology: This survey was conducted on behalf of CBS News by YouGov between October 13- 16, 2020. They are based on representative samples of 1,124 registered voters in Wisconsin. The margin of error for registered voters is ± points in Wisconsin. For the trial heat reported in this article, the numbers for “presidential vote intention with leaners allocated” were used. 

Image: Getty