Half of Americans think a peaceful transition is likely to take place

January 20, 2021, 2:05 PM UTC

Despite the national trauma of the last few weeks, including the attempted takeover of the US Capitol by Trump supporters, Americans in the latest Economist/YouGov poll expect the peaceful Inauguration of President-Elect Joe Biden.

But many Republicans are not happy about it. They continue to have doubts about the Democrat’s victory.

Two-thirds of Republicans, and three in four Trump voters, do not believe that Biden legitimately won the election. Seven in ten Trump supporters believe there was “a lot” of fraud, with a majority thinking it changed the election outcome.

Most Trump voters (76%) have little or no confidence that the election was held fairly. However, 71% now agree that the inauguration actually will take place. In addition, nearly half of Trump voters now believe the President should concede publicly, something he has not yet acknowledged (though he offered his best wishes and prayers Tuesday), up 20-points since before the Capitol invasion.

About half of Americans believes the transition and inauguration will be peaceful, with Republicans particularly convinced this will be case: 56% of Republicans and 62% of Trump voters believe there will likely be a peaceful transfer of power.

Democrats are less sure about this: just 42% of Democrats (and the same percentage of Biden voters) believe there will be a peaceful transfer.

Few approve of the Capitol attack, although many Trump voters think it was right to protest the certification of Biden’s election victory

Overall, only 13% of American – including 15% of Trump voters – approve of the Capitol takeover (though far more approve of that day’s protest against the certification of the Biden victory). Three in five strongly disapprove of the Capitol attack.

As for whether or not the President bears responsibility for the Capitol attack, answers depend on political partisanship. Democrats overwhelmingly think the President urged his supporters to engage in violence; Republicans say he did not. More than half of Republicans say President Trump should bear no responsibility for the attack; three-quarters of Democrats say he should take most of it.

Related: America Speaks: Do they think President Trump is responsible for the events at the Capitol? 

See the toplines and crosstabs from this week’s Economist/YouGov Poll 

MethodologyThe Economist survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,500 US Adult Citizens interviewed online between January 16 - 19, 2021. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the US Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 Presidential vote, registration status, geographic region, and news interest. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all US citizens. The margin of error is approximately 3.8% for the overall sample.      

Image: Getty