Four in five Americans see an economic recession as likely within the next year or already happening

Linley SandersData Journalist
Kathy FrankovicConsultant
June 10, 2022, 5:13 PM GMT+0

A Consumer Price Index report released on Friday revealed that the U.S. inflation rate has hit a 40-year high of 8.6% as the price of food and gas continues to rise. The latest Economist/YouGov poll, conducted June 4 - 7, 2022, shows that inflation continues to dominate many Americans’ concerns: 63% call it a very serious problem nationally.

Nearly seven in 10 Americans (69%) say changes in the inflation rate have impacted them negatively. About three in five Democrats (59%) say this, compared to 81% of Republicans and 76% of Independents. Not only is inflation an issue, but about half of Americans anticipate no end in sight. When asked to predict what inflation will look like six months from now, 51% say it’s going to be higher.

Amid the lackluster economic forecast, most Americans (55%) say the United States is currently in an economic recession. Among people who say the U.S. is not in a recession, most (56%) say a recession is very or somewhat likely to happen in the next year. Four in five say either that we are already in a recession, or there is one likely in the next year. The share of Americans who think we’re in a recession is the same as we saw in last week’s Economist/YouGov poll.

More than two in five Americans (44%) say President Joe Biden has “a lot” of responsibility for the current trend in the inflation rate. Among those who say inflation will be higher in six months, 66% say Biden has a lot of responsibility. Just 16% of Democrats say Biden deserves a lot of responsibility for the current inflation rate, compared to 52% of Independents and 77% of Republicans.

This poll was conducted on June 4 - 7, 2022 among 1,500 U.S. adult citizens. Explore more on the methodology and data for this Economist/YouGov poll

Image: Unsplash

Explore more data & articles