Do voters want a rerun of the 2020 presidential election? Not really. Majorities don't want either of the major-party candidates to run again. Among registered voters in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, 59% say President Joe Biden should not run again, and 61% say that former President Donald Trump should not.
Here is the breakdown of opinion on a 2024 rematch:
- 31% want neither Biden nor Trump to run
- 14% want Biden to run but don't want Trump to run
- 15% aren't sure about Biden and don't want Trump to run
- 8% aren't sure about Trump and don't want Biden to run
- 19% want Trump to run but don't want Biden to run
- 9% either are unsure about both men or want one to run and are unsure about the other
- Just 4% want both Biden and Trump to run
Overall, 87% say they don't want at least one of Biden or Trump to run in 2024. One in three registered Democratic voters (34%) don’t want Biden to be their party’s candidate in 2024, and about the same share of GOP registered voters (31%) don't want Trump to run. Half of Republicans (50%) would like to see Trump run, more than the 34% of Democrats who support a Biden re-election attempt. Far more Democrats than Republicans aren’t sure if they want their party’s 2020 standard-bearer to be on the ballot again. Majorities of Independents don’t want either man to run in 2024.
Demand for a Biden re-election bid could be held back by the public’s perception of a poor economy, inflation, and the potential for an economic recession:
- 51% describe the U.S. economy as being in poor shape, and many expect things to get even worse. Slightly fewer (42%) also describe the global economy as in poor shape.
- For two-thirds of Americans (68%), inflation is a very important issue. Nearly all Americans say they've been affected by it, including a majority (58%) who say it has affected them “a lot.”
- 57% believe the U.S. is already in a recession and for two-thirds of those (and half of Americans overall), rising prices are the best indicator of a recession.
The share of Americans who approve of Biden’s job performance has dropped below 40% in the last few weeks. This week, 38% approve of the job he is doing as president, while 52% do not.
Trump’s national favorable ratings continue to be negative: This week, 37% of Americans view him favorably, while 57% view him unfavorably. Among Democrats, his net favorability is -76 (10% are favorable; 86%, unfavorable), and among Republicans, it is +61 (79% are favorable; 18%, unfavorable).
— Linley Sanders contributed to this article
This poll was conducted on July 2 - 5, 2022 among 1,000 U.S. adult citizens. Explore more on the methodology and data for this YouGov poll.