New polling by the Economist/YouGov conducted after the first 2024 Republican presidential debate explores who Republicans think won, who they think did poorly, and who they expect to vote for. The results show that while both entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are seen as having done well, most Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents still say they would vote for Donald Trump if the primary were held today. And while a majority of Republicans approve of Trump's decision not to participate in the first debate, most say they would like to see him take part in the next one.
Winners and losers of the first GOP debate
One in three Americans (34%) — including 44% of Republicans — say they are paying a lot of attention to the 2024 presidential campaign. News of the first Republican primary debate in Milwaukee last week has reached most Americans, with 65% of U.S. adult citizens and 72% of Republicans saying they watched at least parts or saw news stories about it. Most didn't stick around for the full broadcast: Just 10% of Americans and 17% of Republicans say they watched the entire debate.
Of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents who at least saw news coverage of the debate, the largest share — 31% — say that the winner was Ramaswamy. DeSantis is 12 points behind, with 19% declaring him the winner. Nikki Haley, whom 8% say won, comes in a distant third.
Ramaswamy was seen as the winner by an even more decisive share (37%) of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents who say Trump — who was notably absent from the debate — is their top choice candidate. Among Republicans and Republican-leaners who don't pick Trump as their top candidate, Ramaswamy (24%) and DeSantis (22%) are nearly tied as debate winners. A large share of Republicans and Republican-leaners who paid some attention to the debate are either not sure who won (22%) or say none of the candidates did (14%).
In addition to asking respondents to choose a single debate winner, the poll also allowed them to select all the candidates they thought did well in the debate. Ramaswamy (48%) and DeSantis (44%) are about equally likely to be seen as having done well by Republicans and Republican-leaners who paid some attention to the debate. Haley comes in third, with 33% saying she did well or won. Less than one in five say Tim Scott (18%), Mike Pence (13%), Chris Christie (7%), Doug Burgum (4%), or Asa Hutchinson (3%) did well.
A third question asked people who paid some attention to the debate to select which candidates they thought performed poorly in it. On this question, two candidates stand out. Nearly half of Republicans and Republican-leaners (46%) say that Christie did poorly and 36% say the same about Pence.
Donald Trump's interview with Tucker Carlson
After refusing to sign a pledge to support the party's eventual nominee, Donald Trump chose not to participate in the first Republican debate and instead released a pre-taped interview with Tucker Carlson. Many Republicans weren't aware of Trump's interview with Carlson at the time of the survey: 45% said they hadn't heard anything about it, compared to 28% who said the same about the debate.
By a margin of three to one (61% to 22%), Republicans strongly or somewhat approve of Trump's decision not to participate in the debate. Republicans who say they would vote for Trump if the primary were held today are far more likely to approve of his decision to skip the debate (83%) compared to Republicans who say they would vote for other GOP candidates (43%).
Despite generally approving of his choice to forgo the first debate, most Republicans — including those who say they'd vote for Trump in the primary (54%) and those who prefer another candidate (67%) — want Trump to participate in the next debate.
Who do Republicans want as their nominee?
Trump's absence from the debate does not seem to have affected his standing among Republicans. Of the 2024 GOP candidates, he continues to receive the largest share of support among Republicans and Independents who lean toward the Republican Party. Half of this group (51%) say they would vote for Trump if the presidential primary were held today, while a combined 32% say they would vote for any of the 11 other declared candidates; 17% are undecided or say they would not vote. Trump's lead over his closest rival, DeSantis, is 37 percentage points.
Despite Vivek Ramaswamy being viewed as the winner of the first debate by a plurality of Republicans and Republican-leaners, just 5% say they would vote for Ramaswamy if the primary were held today; prior to the debate, he was preferred by 4%. More than twice as many Republicans and Republican-leaners who say they'd most like to vote for Trump in the primary choose DeSantis (38%) as their second choice as select Ramaswamy (16%).
Who do Republicans want to avoid nominating? In one question, we asked registered voters who were Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents to select which candidates they would be disappointed to see as the Republican nominee. The largest shares say they would be disappointed if the nominee were Christie (53%), Pence (49%), or Hutchinson (40%) — all of whom have publicly criticized Trump at some point. Fewer than one in five say they would be disappointed with Scott (15%), DeSantis (17%), or Trump (19%).
Pence's decision to certify Biden's win in 2020 could be a factor in Republicans' anticipated disappointment over his possible nomination: Among Republicans who think Pence made the wrong decision in certifying the election, 70% would be disappointed with him as the nominee compared to 29% of those who say he made the right decision.
How do Trump Republicans differ from non-Trump Republicans?
How do Trump Republicans — the name we use throughout this section to refer to Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents who say they would vote for Trump in a primary held today — differ from non-Trump Republicans — that is, Republicans and Republican-leaners who support other GOP presidential candidates? In addition to demographic questions, our latest poll asked Republicans a variety of policy questions that came up in the first GOP debate and that reveal some cleavages between the party factions. Both groups of Republicans generally have views much closer to each others' than to Democrats, but there are some notable differences.
On average, Trump Republicans have less education and less income than non-Trump Republicans. They are more likely to consider themselves very conservative and to prefer a president who sticks to their principles, rather than one who compromises. While the vast majority of Trump Republicans believe Biden is illegitimate, less than half of non-Trump Republicans agree. Trump Republicans are more focused on criminal justice reform than non-Trump Republicans are, possibly due to their attitudes toward Trump's recent experiences with the criminal justice system. They are also more likely to support decreasing aid to Ukraine and a national abortion ban.
Demographics
Education and income are some of the starkest demographic dividers between Trump and non-Trump Republicans. Trump Republicans (43%) are far more likely than non-Trump Republicans (22%) to have no formal education beyond high school. They also have lower family incomes: 41% of Trump Republicans earn less than $50,000 within their families, compared to 27% of non-Trump Republicans. And Trump Republicans are more likely to say their family's financial situation has worsened over the past year (70% vs. 57%).
Issue importance
While Trump Republicans are mostly similar to non-Trump Republicans in the issues they view as important, there are some differences. Trump Republicans are 19 points more likely than non-Trump Republicans to say that criminal justice reform is a very important issue.
Other long-running indicators suggest a growing gap in the emphasis put on criminal justice reform between Republicans who do and do not support a Trump candidacy. In recent months, more Republicans and Republican-leaners who want Trump to run have said that criminal justice reform is very important to them, while fewer Republicans and Republican-leaners who oppose Trump running say it is very important. This coincides with Trump's recent indictments, the first of which occurred in April.
Trump Republicans also are more likely than non-Trump Republicans to say health care (+11), immigration (+9), and jobs and the economy (+8) are very important. They are 7 points less likely than non-Trump Republicans to view climate change and the environment as very important.
Views on Donald Trump
Trump Republicans are 42 points more likely than non-Trump Republicans (87% vs. 45%) to say that Joe Biden was not the legitimate winner of the 2020 election. They also are far more likely than non-Trump Republicans to say that Mike Pence made the wrong decision in certifying Biden's victory (51% vs. 13%).
One possible reason for a Republican to oppose Trump's nomination is that he is facing charges that could lead to jail time — and if Trump were imprisoned, that could interfere with his ability to campaign and govern. Trump Republicans (24%) are half as likely as non-Trump Republicans (50%) to say it is very or somewhat likely that Trump will be convicted of a crime prior to the 2024 election. And they are 38 points more likely to say that if Trump is convicted after being nominated, the Republican Party should still support him (86% vs. 48%)
The war in Ukraine
Trump Republicans are 20 points more likely than non-Trump Republicans (61% vs. 41%) to strongly or somewhat support decreasing U.S. military aid to Ukraine. While three-quarters of non-Trump Republicans (75%) hold a very unfavorable view of Russia President Vladimir Putin, just 58% of Trump Republicans do. The reverse is true for Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky: 27% of Trump Republicans hold a very unfavorable view of him, compared to 7% of non-Trump Republicans.
Other issues
Trump Republicans are 10 points more likely than non-Trump Republicans to strongly or somewhat support a nationwide ban on abortion (48% vs. 38%) and 7 points more likely to strongly or somewhat support abolishing the U.S. Department of Education (55% vs. 48%). They are 10 points less likely to believe the world's climate is changing as a result of human activity (26% vs. 36%).
On certain issues asked about in the poll, Trump Republicans are not significantly different from non-Trump Republicans. These include describing themselves as pro-life, supporting the sending of military troops to the border, and deciding who should be in charge of public school curriculums. Three-quarters of Republicans in both groups — along with most Democrats — believe the U.S. government knows more about UFOs than it is telling the public, a topic raised in the latest GOP debate.
— Kathy Frankovic, Matthew Smith, and Carl Bialik contributed to this article
See the toplines and crosstabs from the Economist/YouGov poll conducted on August 26 - 29, 2023 among 1,500 U.S. adult citizens.
Methodology: Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.
Image: Getty (Win McNamee / Staff)
