YouGov takes a final look at some of the closest Senate and Governor's races
The 2014 midterm elections promise more close races than any other year in recent memory. YouGov has been polling every Senate, House and Governor's race for the CBS News/New York Times Battleground Tracker, but interviewing for the final wave was completed on October 23--almost two weeks prior to the election. A lot can change in two weeks, so YouGov decided to take a final look at some of the closest races. We have fielded surveys in seven states where the leads for Senate or Governor had been within the margin of error in our last poll. Fresh samples were drawn and, unlike the Battleground Tracker, interviews were evenly distributed over these states (without oversamples of competitive congressional districts).
| State | RV | LV | MOE | Dem | Lean Dem | Total Dem | Rep | Lean Rep | Total Rep | Ind | Other | Unde -cided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1511 | 1417 | 3.3% | 39.8% | 2.1% | 41.9% | 42.1% | 0.6% | 42.7% | 0.0% | 4.7% | 10.7% | |
1912 | 1743 | 3.2% | 40.8% | 1.4% | 42.2% | 41.0% | 2.7% | 43.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 12.0% | |
1244 | 1112 | 4.4% | 40.3% | 2.5% | 42.9% | 39.6% | 2.2% | 41.9% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 12.7% | |
1245 | 1137 | 4.8% | 34.0% | 2.8% | 36.9% | 34.7% | 3.5% | 38.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 21.8% | |
1916 | 1727 | 3.0% | 41.6% | 1.9% | 43.5% | 38.0% | 3.4% | 41.4% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 11.7% | |
Kansas* - Orman tabulated as Democratic | ||||||||||||
Kay Hagan and Bruce Braley have leads of 2.1% and 1.0%, respectively, over their Republican challengers. But in the other four races Republicans have very slight leads: Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts leads Independent challenger Greg Orman by 1.3% (with one out of five voters still undecided!), David Perdue leads Michelle Nunn by 1.5% for the Georgia open Senate seat, and challenger Cory Gardner leads incumbent Mark Udall by a scant 0.8%. The last is a reversal from the fourth wave of the Battleground Tracker, where Udall led Gardner by a statistically insignificant 1.4%.
There are also five close Governor's races in these states (as well as a not-so-close one in Iowa). Our final poll favors Republicans in three of these races (Georgia, Kansas, and Wisconsin) and Democrats in two (Colorado and Florida). Again, all of these races are within the margin of error and should be considered toss-ups. In Florida, for example, incumbent Republican Rick Scott led Democrat Charlie Crist by 1.2% in the Battleground Tracker, while Crist now leads Scott by 0.1%. That's a close race.
| State | RV | LV | MOE | Dem | Lean Dem | Total Dem | Rep | Lean Rep | Total Rep | Ind | Other | Unde- cided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1511 | 1417 | 3.3% | 42.7% | 1.4% | 44.1% | 40.2% | 1.5% | 41.7% | 0.0% | 4.4% | 9.8% | |
1988 | 1795 | 2.7% | 40.2% | 1.1% | 41.3% | 38.9% | 2.4% | 41.2% | 0.0% | 4.9% | 12.5% | |
1912 | 1743 | 3.2% | 39.1% | 1.8% | 40.9% | 43.0% | 2.2% | 45.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 12.2% | |
1244 | 1112 | 4.4% | 32.8% | 1.6% | 34.4% | 46.0% | 2.6% | 48.6% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 12.6% | |
1245 | 1137 | 4.8% | 36.1% | 1.7% | 37.8% | 34.9% | 3.7% | 38.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 20.7% | |
1615 | 1494 | 3.4% | 41.1% | 2.1% | 43.3% | 42.1% | 2.7% | 44.8% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 10.6% | |
As with all YouGov polls, respondents were selected from online panels. Participants were selected based upon their demographics (age, gender, race, education) and 2012 voting behavior. Respondents were matched to YouGov's sampling frame (a database constructed from Census and exit poll data). The construction of the sampling frame and weighting methodology may be found here.
Colorado tables may be found here.
Florida tables may be found here.
Georgia tables may be found here.
Iowa tables may be found here.
Kansas tables may be found here.
North Carolina tables may be found here.
Wisconsin tables may be found here.
Image: Getty
