More Americans now say Russia is winning the war than say Ukraine is

Taylor OrthDirector of Survey Data Journalism
June 15, 2022, 9:53 PM GMT+0

Data from the latest Economist/YouGov poll finds that Americans have grown more pessimistic when it comes to Ukraine’s path to victory. This week's was the first survey since we began asking who is winning the war — about a month after it began — in which more Americans say that Russia is winning (25%) than say Ukraine is (19%). In recent weeks the share who say neither side is winning also has increased, to 38%.

A growing share (29%) also say that Russia will be the eventual winner of the conflict, rather than Ukraine (26%). About as many say they’re not sure who will win (30%).

President Joe Biden's approval for handling the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems closely linked to how well Americans think Ukraine is doing in the war. This week, strong-disapproval of his handling of the war spiked to 31%, the highest point since we began tracking in March. Only 39% approve of his handling of the conflict, while 49% disapprove.

Throughout the conflict, surveys have found that more Americans have preferred the U.S. take a tougher stance on Russia over a less tough stance than have preferred a less tough stance. In recent weeks, however, the share who report wanting a tougher response has declined, while the percentages who say our response “is about right” or “should be less tough” have slightly increased.

— Carl Bialik and Linley Sanders contributed to this article

This poll was conducted on June 11 - 14, 2022 among 1,500 U.S. adult citizens. Explore more on the methodology and data for this Economist/YouGov poll

Image: Getty