Many Republicans are optimistic about Ted Cruz's chances in 2016, but voters prefer Clinton to Cruz
Last May, Texas Senator Ted Cruz was among the most popular of Republicans and a Tea Party darling. Today, although nearly two in three Republicans approve of his decision to run for President, many in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll aren’t sure he can win.
Less than half of Republicans are even somewhat sure he can win the Presidency or even the nomination. Americans overall have even lower expectations for the Cruz candidacy: about a third say Cruz is very or somewhat likely to win the GOP nomination, and only one in four think he can win the Presidency. And while Republicans are happy Cruz has made the decision to run, Americans – by the narrow margin of 42% to 36% -- are not.
Cruz performs less well among registered voters in a matchup with Hillary Clinton (who has not yet announced but who has a commanding lead in all polling about the Democratic nomination) than a generic Republican does against a generic Democrat.
Republicans are also less likely to commit to Cruz against Clinton than they are to support a Republican in principle.
Cruz does well on some characteristics that matter when the public evaluates a president: a majority overall and three in four Republicans view him as a strong leader.
The 55% who view Cruz as a strong leader is higher than the 49% in this poll who say that about President Obama.
The 25% of Republicans who think Cruz is a weak leader is matched by a similarly sized group of Republicans who are generally negative about Cruz. Last May, when Cruz was less well-known, majorities of Republicans held favorable views of him, thought of Cruz as usually saying what he meant, and believed Cruz shared their values. That’s still true today, but the positives are no different than they were last year. Meanwhile, negative assessments of Cruz from Republicans have doubled.
Last year, Americans overall had mixed feelings about Cruz. As many were negative as were positive. In this poll, opinions of Cruz have turned negative. 34% view Cruz favorably, while 44% are unfavorable.
Republicans who are Tea Party supporters (and 55% of Republicans in this poll describe themselves that way) like Cruz, but not as many rate him favorably today as did so last year. And Cruz’s unfavorable percentage with Tea Party Republicans has more than doubled.
One of Cruz’s positives for Republicans last year was the perception that he was a conservative. Conservatism continues to matter to Republicans, and 62% of Republicans view him that way. But conservatism isn’t the only positive trait that matters, though it may have been most important in last May’s poll. Overall, those with a favorable opinion of Cruz like him for intelligence and his honesty as well as his conservatism.
Cruz confronts one particular problem: to some, he is not eligible to be President. He was born in Canada to an American mother and a Cuban father. Though Cruz is an American citizen by virtue of his mother’s U.S. citizenship, his position may be awkwardly similar to the one that the so-called “birthers” ascribe to President Obama – born outside the United States to a U.S.-citizen mother and a non-citizen father (the President was born in the state of Hawaii; Cruz’s U.S. birth certificate indicates he was born in Canada).
Awareness of Cruz’s birth status has grown from the 10% who knew last May that he was born outside the U.S. to an American mother. One in four say that today. But half still don’t know. Including all possible parental citizenship options, 41% of Republicans believe Cruz was born outside the U.S. and 42% of Republicans say that about the President.
Despite that similarity, only 9% of Republicans think Cruz is not legally eligible to serve as President. 45% of Republicans think that about President Obama.
Many of the Republicans who know Cruz was born outside of the United States also believe Barack Obama was not born within U.S. boundaries. Within this group the same pattern exists. Like other Republicans, these Republicans overwhelmingly declare that Cruz is eligible to serve, while nearly half say the President is not.
Edited to correct an incorrect chart on Ted Cruz's chances against Hillary Clinton
Economist/YouGov poll archives can be found here.
