In this election that hands Republicans more good news than Democrats, New York offers Democrats some comfort. Democrats hold the lead in the Governor’s race and both U.S. Senate races. Democrat Gubernatorial candidate Andrew Cuomo leads Republican candidate Carl Paladino by 30 points among likely voters. Both Democrat candidates for U.S. Senate Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand lead their respective Republican opponents Jay Townsend and Joe DioGuardi by 24 points among likely voters.
Senate
| Registered Voters | Likely Voters | |
|---|---|---|
Charles E. Schumer | 56% | 59% |
Jay Townsend | 31% | 35% |
Senate (Special)
| Registered Voters | Likely Voters | |
|---|---|---|
Kirsten E. Gillibrand | 55% | 57% |
Joseph J. DioGuardi | 30% | 33% |
Governor
| Registered Voters | Likely Voters | |
|---|---|---|
Andrew M. Cuomo | 57% | 57% |
Carl P. Paladino | 25% | 27% |
Democrats Show Strength Among All Voters
The Democratic candidates for Governor and U.S. Senate are leading their Republican op- ponents among all subgroups and hold substantial leads among the key subgroup of Independents. Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Andrew Cuomo holds a 27 point lead over Republican Carl Paladino among Independents. Democratic U.S. Senate candidates Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand lead their Republican opponents Jay Townsend and Joe DioGuardi among Independents by 23 and 21 points respectively. All three Democratic candidates hold leads among both men and women, white voters and voters over the age of 30.
Methodology
Interviews with 1000 registered voters, including 819 likely voters, were conducted October 25-28, 2010, online using YouGov’s PollingPoint panel. YouGov uses a matched sample methodology that selects respondents to match the New York registered voter population in terms of demographics (age, race, gender, education, employment status, income, marital status, children), past voting behavior, and political attitudes (interest in politics, party registration, and ideology).
