In the last couple of days before the election, the race for U.S. Senate remains tight, while the Republican candidate for Governor has a more comfortable lead over his Democrat candidate. Among likely voters, the Republican candidate for Governor Bill Brady leads incumbent Governor Democrat Pat Quinn by 7 percentage points. The race for U.S. Senate is tighter with the Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias leading Republican Mark Kirk by 4 percentage points.
Senate
| Registered Voters | Likely Voters | |
|---|---|---|
Alex Giannoulias | 47% | 47% |
Mark Kirk | 40% | 44% |
Governor
| Registered Voters | Likely Voters | |
|---|---|---|
Patrick J. Quinn | 40% | 40% |
Bill Brady | 43% | 47% |
Quinn shows weakness among his base, Giannoulias shows strength
Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Alex Giannoulias has been able to consolidate his base among likely voters, and leads Republican Mark Kirk by 10 percentage points among women, and voters aged 30 to 64 by 8 percentage points. Incumbent Democratic Gover- nor Pat Quinn has not been able to consolidate his base as well, receiving only 77 percent support among likely voters who are Democrats while his Republican opponent Bill Brady receives 90 percent support among likely voters who are Republican. Quinn is tied with Brady among women, a traditionally Democratic voting group and trails among Indepen- dents by 18 percentage points.
Methodology
Interviews with 1000 registered voters, including 784 likely voters, were conducted October 25-30, 2010, online using YouGov’s PollingPoint panel. YouGov uses a matched sample methodology that selects respondents to match the Illinois registered voter population in terms of demographics (age, race, gender, education, employment status, income, marital status, children), past voting behavior, and political attitudes (interest in politics, party registration, and ideology).
