Among several of the Tea Party candidates who have captured the Republican nominations, the Tea Party Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Kentucky, Rand Paul, is showing how the enthusiasm gap engendered by a Tea Party nominee can be an advantage. Paul leads Democratic Senate candidate Jack Conway by just 3 points among registered voters, but by a more comfortable 8 points among likely voters.
|Registered Voters||Likely Voters|
Rand Paul has lead among key voting groups
Tea Party candidate Rand Paul leads Democrat Jack Conway in the race for U.S. Senate among key voting groups. Paul leads Conway by 26 percentage points among Independents who are likely voters, and voters who are aged 65 years and older by 23 points. While Paul trails Conway by 11 points among women who are likely voters, he leads by 28 points among men.
Interviews with 1000 registered voters, including 822 likely voters, were conducted October 25-28, 2010, online using YouGov’s PollingPoint panel. YouGov uses a matched sample methodology that selects respondents to match the Kentucky registered voter population in terms of demographics (age, race, gender, education, employment status, income, marital status, children), past voting behavior, and political attitudes (interest in politics, party registration, and ideology).