YouGov/Economist Poll: July 15-17, 2016

July 18, 2016, 3:49 PM GMT+0

This is a summary of a YouGov/Economist Poll conducted July 15-17, 2016. The sample is 1300 general population respondents with a Margin of Error of ±4.2% (4.5% for registered voters).

GENERAL ELECTION (among registered voters):

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, from the Green Party, who would you vote for?

  • Hillary Clinton: 40% (-0)
  • Donald Trump: 37% (0)
  • Gary Johnson: 5% (0)
  • Jill Stein: 4% (+2)
  • Someone else: 3%
  • Not sure yet: 7%
  • Probably won't vote: 3%

2-way follow-up: Respondents who selected Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or ’someone else’ were asked the following question ’Which candidate do you prefer more, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?’ Below those responses have been added to the support for Clinton and Trump from the initial question.

  • Hillary Clinton: 45% (0)
  • Donald Trump: 41% (-2)
  • Someone else / Not sure yet / No preference: 11% (+3)
  • Probably won't vote: 3% (-1)

CONGRESS (among registered voters):

If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for...

  • The Democratic Party candidate: 43% (0)
  • The Republican Party candidate: 36% (0)
  • Other: 3% (0)
  • Not sure: 14% (0)
  • I would not vote: 4% (0)

Approval of Obama as president (among all adults):

  • Approve: 46% (-1)
  • Disapprove: 46% (+1)

This is is the first time Obama's approval rating has been in net-positive territory in the YouGov/Economist Poll since July 2015.

Among registered voters, 45% approve of Obama and 50% disapprove.

Approval of Congress:

  • Approve: 11% (-4)
  • Disapprove: 62% (+1)

Direction of the country:

  • Right direction: 23% (0)
  • Disapprove: 65% (-2)

Other highlights:

Presidential election

  • 45% of Americans now expect Hillary Clinton to defeat Donald Trump in November, down from 54% last week. 31% now expect Trump to win, up from 26%.
  • Sanders supporters have yet to coalesce around Clinton. Only 44% say they will support her, and only 42% approve of Sanders's decision to endorse Hillary Clinton – 45% disapprove.

Mike Pence

  • Among the general public, the balance of opinion has not changed much for Mike Pence before and after his selection as VP was announced. Before, 17% had a favorable impression, and 21% had a negative one, while 62% said "don't know". Now, the figures are 27% favorable, 31% unfavorable, and 43% Don't know.
  • By 35% to 21% Americans are more likely to say he is a "good choice" rather than a "bad choice" for VP, which is very similar to reactions to Paul Ryan's selection in 2012: 34% good to 24% bad.
  • However, Republicans were somewhat more enthusiastic about Paul Ryan: then, 38% of Republicans described themselves as "excited" about Mitt Romney's choice of Paul Ryan, while only 24% say the same now for Mike Pence.
  • Ryan was also slightly better known and better-liked in August 2012, when he was picked. 37% of Americans had a favorable opinion and 33% had an unfavorable opinion. Only 30% responded "don't know".

Turkey and NATO

  • Only 42% of Americans consider Turkey to be a friendly country or an ally to the US, while 26% say it is unfriendly or an enemy.
  • By 43% to 27% Americans have a favorable opinion of NATO, and by 48% to 16% Americans would rather stay in NATO than withdraw.
  • Opinions of NATO do vary somewhat along partisan lines, however: while Clinton voters would likely to remain in NATO by 67% to 7%, the split is only 45% to 24% among Trump voters.
  • Trump voters are also much more concerned about terrorist attacks than other voters: 76% say the US is "less safe" than in 2001 compared to 45% of all Americans, and 66% of Trump voters say a major terrorist attack in the US is "very likely (more than 50% [chance])" compared to 40% of all Americans.

Additional questions and detailed demographic breakdowns: PDF

Topline summary: PDF

National Tracking Report: PDF

Presidential Election Tracking Report: PDF

YouGov/Economist Poll archives