This is a summary of a YouGov/Economist Poll conducted September 10-13, 2016. The sample is 1300 general population respondents with a Margin of Error of ±3.9%.
GENERAL ELECTION (among registered voters):
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, from the Green Party, who would you vote for?
- Hillary Clinton: 42% (+2)
- Donald Trump: 40% (+2)
- Gary Johnson: 5% (-2)
- Jill Stein: 3% (-2)
- Someone else: 2%
- Not sure yet: 5%
- Probably won't vote: 2%
2-way follow-up: Respondents who selected Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or ’someone else’ were asked the following question ’Which candidate do you prefer more, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?’ Below those responses have been added to the support for Clinton and Trump from the initial question.
- Hillary Clinton: 46% (+2)
- Donald Trump: 44% (+2)
- Someone else / Not sure yet / No preference: 8%
- Probably won't vote: 2%
What do you think is the most likely outcome of the presidential election with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee and Donald Trump as the Republican nominee?
- Clinton will win in a landslide: 19% (-1)
- Clinton will win narrowly: 32% (-2)
- Trump will win narrowly: 20% (0)
- Trump will win in a landslide: 9% (0)
- Not sure: 20% (+4)
Hillary Clinton favorability (among all adults):
- Favorable: 46% (+2)
- Unfavorable: 53% (-1)
As a net rating, Clinton's -7 this week is her best favorability rating since December 2015 as measured by the YouGov/Economist Poll. 46% is also the highest share of the public with a favorable opinion of Clinton since July 2015.
Donald Trump favorability (among all adults):
- Favorable: 36% (+1)
- Unfavorable: 62% (-1)
CONGRESS (among registered voters):
If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for...
- The Democratic Party candidate: 44% (+3)
- The Republican Party candidate: 38% (0)
- Other: 3%
- Not sure: 12%
- I would not vote: 3%
Approval of Obama as president (among all adults):
- Approve: 48% (-2)
- Disapprove: 47% (+1)
Among registered voters, 48% approve of Obama and 50% disapprove.
Approval of Congress:
- Approve: 13% (+1)
- Disapprove: 61% (-2)
Direction of the country:
- Right direction: 25% (-2)
- Wrong Track: 66% (+1)
Commander-in-Chief Forum and upcoming debates
- 71% of registered voters heard something about or watched the Commander-in-Chief Forum on NBC News
- 42% of these voters say Clinton did better, while 40% say Donald Trump did better
- 41% approve of how Matt Lauer did moderating the forum; 45% disapprove. There is a partisan split: 59% of Trump voters approve of Lauer's job, compared to only 28% of Clinton voters.
- 77% of voters plan on watching the first presidential debate
- By 44% to 33%, voters expect Clinton to do better than Trump in the debate
- Asked about whether moderators should "correct the participants if they say something untrue" or "leave it to the participants to correct each other", 47% of voters prefer the first option, and 38% prefer the second.
- While 67% of Clinton voters want moderators to fact-check candidates during the debates, 59% of Trump voters want the moderators to stay out of it.
Vladimir Putin, Edward Snowden and Julian Assange
- Putin: 18% favorable, 64% unfavotable
- Snowden: 35% favorable, 35% unfavorable
- Assange: 24% favorable, 30% unfavorable
- By 54% to 35% Americans agree rather than disagree with a statement (unattributed in the poll) by Vice Presidential candidate Mike Pence: "Vladimir Putin has been a stronger leader in his country than Barack Obama has been in this country"
- Among registered voters, 38% are "confident" in Hillary Clinton's ability to deal with Russia, while 36% say the same for Donald Trump.
Additional questions on Merrick Garland, lame duck sessions of Congress and "birtherism" can be found in the PDFs below.
Additional questions and detailed demographic breakdowns: PDF
Topline summary: PDF
National Tracking Report: PDF