Romney wins one-third of conservatives, one-third of non-supporters of the Tea Party, to win 30% of the vote nationally among Republican caucus/primary participants
If Mitt Romney looks uncomfortable, it is because he is a front-runner who was unable to rise above 25% of the vote in Iowa, and nationally, he stands with one foot in the conservative camp and the other foot in the camp of those who do not support the Tea Party, leaving him just 30% support nationwide.
| NATIONAL REPUBLICAN PRIMARY PARTICIPANTS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ALL |
|
|
Mitt Romney............................... | 30 | 19 | 33 |
Newt Gingrich...................................... | 17 | 25 | 14 |
Ron Paul......................................... | 13 | 11 | 14 |
Bachmann/Perry/Santorum............... | 18 | 27 | 15 |
Huntsman/Other/No Preference.......... | 22 | 17 | 24 |
| IOWA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY PARTICIPANTS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ALL IOWA |
|
|
Mitt Romney................................. | 25 | 19 | 38 |
Newt Gingrich..................................... | 13 | 15 | 10 |
Ron Paul......................................... | 21 | 19 | 25 |
Bachmann/Perry/Santorum....................... | 40 | 46 | 26 |
Huntsman/Other/No Preference........... | 1 | - | 2 |
* Iowa results Source: An entrance poll of Iowa caucus-goers conducted for the Associated Press and television networks (January 3, 2012) | |||
In a national poll of Republican caucus/primary participants (Week of 12/31/2011) by YouGov for Economist magazine, completed the morning of the Iowa caucuses, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are doing better nationally than they did in Iowa, while Ron Paul and the conservative trio of Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum are doing worse nationally, compared Iowa caucus results and analysis of the entrance poll of Iowa caucus-goers conducted for The Associated Press and television networks (January 3, 2012).
| NATIONAL REPUBLICAN PRIMARY PARTICIPANTS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ALL |
|
|
Mitt Romney.............................................. | 30 | 34 | 13 |
Newt Gingrich............................................. | 17 | 19 | 12 |
Ron Paul.................................................. | 13 | 10 | 27 |
Bachmann/Perry/Santorum......................... | 18 | 20 | 17 |
Huntsman/Other/No Preference......................... | 22 | 18 | 31 |
| IOWA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY PARTICIPANTS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ALL IOWA |
|
|
Mitt Romney........................................... | 25 | 22 | 35 |
Newt Gingrich.......................................... | 13 | 15 | 6 |
Ron Paul................................................ | 21 | 18 | 40 |
Bachmann/Perry/Santorum...................... | 40 | 45 | 16 |
Huntsman/Other/No Preference............... | 1 | - | 3 |
* Iowa results Source: An entrance poll of Iowa caucus-goers conducted for the Associated Press and television networks (January 3, 2012) | |||
The Iowa caucuses divided the field for the Republican primary into four camps:
1. The Conservative/Tea Party Camp, represented by the 45% of Iowa caucus conservatives and 46% of Iowa caucus Tea Party supporters who voted for Bachmann, Perry or Santorum. In the Economist/YouGov national poll, the trio are winning just 18% nationally.
2. The Establishment Camp, represented by the 25% voting for Mitt Romney. Romney did twice as well among those who are not Tea Party supporters in Iowa (38%) than with Iowa Tea Party supporters (19%), a similar pattern as the Romney vote nationally. In Iowa, Romney did somewhat better among non-conservatives (35%) than with conservative Iowa caucus voters (22%), but that’s the opposite of the pattern nationally, where Romney does much better among conservative Republican caucus primary voters (34%) than he does with non-conservatives nationally (13%). Romney scores poorly among Tea Party supporters nationally (19%).
3. The Non-Conservative Protest Camp, represented by the 21% who voted for Paul. His strength was greatest among non-conservative Iowa caucus voters (40%). Paul did not score well among conservatives in Iowa (18%), and Paul did no better among Iowa Tea Party supporters (19%). Nationally, Paul also scores best among non-conservatives (27%), less well among non-supporters of the Tea Party nationally (14%), Tea Party supporters nationally (11%) and conservatives nationally (10%).
4. The Conservative Protest Camp, represented by the mere 13% of Iowa caucus voters for Gingrich, who did slightly better among conservatives in Iowa (15%) than with non-conservatives (6%) and better among Tea Party supporters in Iowa (15%) than non-Tea Party Iowans (10%). Nationally, Gingrich scores twice as well as Paul among Tea Party supporters (25%), the same as Paul among non-supporters of the Tea Party nationally (14%), about the same as Paul among conservatives nationally (15%). Gingrich does extremely poorly among non-conservatives nationally (6%).
Going forward, how will these four camps shake out?
Bachmann is out. Perry and Santorum soldier on competing with Gingrich for the votes of conservatives.
The conservative vote nationally divided 34% for Romney, 39% for Gingrich or Perry/Santorum, and 28% for Huntsman or undecided.
Paul leads among non-conservatives nationally (27%), with 31% of that number for Huntsman or undecided.
Perry/Santorum (and Bachmann at the time of the poll) control just 27% of the Tea Party vote nationally, compared to 25% for Gingrich, only 19% for Romney, just 11% for Paul.
Romney does as well among non-supporters of the Tea Party nationally (33%) as he does among conservatives nationally (34%). That uncomfortable straddle (non-Tea Party and conservatives) is Romney’s base and it is what lifts him from his 25% of the vote in Iowa. With one-third of non-supporters of the Tea Party and one-third of conservatives nationally in his camp, Romney can inch up to 30% of the total national vote in Republican primaries and caucuses.
Photo source: Press Association
