Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney still leads the pack when Republican voters are asked to choose their preferred candidate from all contenders. In this week’s Economist/YouGov poll (Week of 1/7/2012), completed before the results of the New Hampshire primary were known, Romney maintains the lead that he has held for three weeks now. Following his runner-up performance in the Iowa caucus, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has risen to second place among GOP voters nationwide as well. He is the preferred candidate among 19% of registered voters who usually vote in Republican primaries. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is close behind, with 17%.
Although Santorum and Gingrich are nearly even when GOP voters are asked to choose from the full field of candidates, the general public still has reservations about Gingrich. This is apparent when respondents are asked about head-to-head matchups with Romney. If the contest ever came down to a two-man race between Romney and each of these men, the public would prefer Romney, but Santorum would fare better than Gingrich. 42% of Americans would pick Santorum in a match-up with Romney, while only 35% would pick Gingrich over Romney.
Romney has three weaknesses among members of his own party: many Republicans don’t think he is a conservative; many GOP voters don’t trust him; and the former Governor’s perceived past support for a health care insurance mandate sits badly with a party in which 78% of its primary voters want the current health care reform law repealed.
Only 53% of Republican primary voters believe Mitt Romney is a conservative (about a quarter describe him as moderate, and 12% even say he is a liberal). That is a much smaller percentage than say the same about Gingrich or Santorum.
Seven in ten GOP voters say Santorum and Gingrich are conservatives.
But even more Republican voters characterize one non-candidate as a conservative: 83% believe former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is a conservative.
But Romney’s problem with some Republican voters also extends to perceptions of his trustworthiness. Half of GOP voters say the statement “takes positions of issues and sticks by them” does not describe Romney.
Rick Santorum fares much better in Republican perception when it comes to the trustworthiness of what he says — though on a question worded slightly differently. Seven in ten GOP voters think Santorum says “what he believes” and not “what he thinks people want to hear.”
Romney also has problems with his earlier support of a Massachusetts health care law (since cited as a model for the Obama health care law passed two years ago) that required nearly all Massachusetts residents to purchase insurance. Nearly two in three Republican voters are aware of this Romney position, and it is not a popular one. 78% of Republican voters would repeal the current national health care law, which also contains a coverage mandate.
Romney has one very important strength: the belief that he would be the most electable of the GOP candidates. Just under half of GOP voters say that Romney would be at least somewhat likely to win in November against Democratic President Barack Obama; far fewer say that about either Paul or Santorum.
And when matched against the President, among all registered voters, Romney fares somewhat better than does Santorum. Romney is tied with Obama, whereas Santo-rum trails Obama by 7.
Photo source: Press Association
