Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum’s three wins last Tuesday raised his stock with Republican voters: he is now the clear leader in the latest Economist/YouGov national poll (Week of 2/11/2012).
Santorum’s rise has been dramatic. Last week, he was tied for third place with Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 16%, 16 points behind the then-frontrunner, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. This week, Santorum’s support has nearly doubled. 29% of registered voters who usually vote in Republican primaries favor him for the nomination. Meanwhile, Romney has dropped five points; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has lost seven points.
Santorum’s rise has come from two groups: Republican voters who identify with the Tea Party (39% of all GOP voters) and the majority who call themselves conservatives. Last week, Santorum had the support of just 16% of Tea Party identifiers (Gingrich had the largest share, 34%). This week, 36% of Tea Partiers favor Santo-rum, and only 23% support Gingrich. Even fewer, 19%, favor Romney.
Preferred Republican Presidential Nominee among Tea Party Supporters
| February 4-7 | February 11-14 | |
|---|---|---|
Mitt Romney | 25% | 19% |
Newt Gingrich | 34% | 23% |
Rick Santorum | 16% | 36% |
Ron Paul | 15% | 12% |
Among conservatives, Santorum has jumped from 17% to 36% in a week. He now leads all the other GOP candidates by double digits. Last week, conservatives were more supportive of Romney and Gingrich than they were of Santorum, who only received 17% support from them.
Conservatism appears to be very important among GOP voters, and it is Santorum who is seen as the most conservative of all the candidates. 82% of GOP voters say he is either conservative or "very" conservative, a far greater percentage than the 59% who think this about Gingrich. Just one in three think Romney is conservative.
In fact, half of Republican voters continue to think that Romney is a "moderate."
Santorum also scores high with Republican voters on both authenticity and likeability. 71% of GOP voters think he says what he really believes; and 36% say they like him "a lot" as a person. Both those percentages are much higher than for Gingrich and Romney.
Only Ron Paul does better on believability. Although they don’t like him very much, 79% of GOP voters think Paul "says what he really believes."
But despite Santorum’s surge, GOP voters still expect Romney to win their party’s nomination, though their certainty has dropped five points in the last week. Last week, 60% expected a Romney victory; this week 55% do.
Economist/YouGov poll archives can found here.
Photo source: Press Association
