Most likely voters have now cast their ballot

Matthew SmithHead of Data Journalism
October 26, 2020, 8:06 PM GMT+0

Biden leads by two to one among such voters

While Election Day itself isn’t until November 3, the results of the latest Yahoo News/YouGov survey show that most voting activity is likely to have already taken place.

At the time fieldwork was conducted – October 23-25 – a majority of likely voters (56%) said they have already submitted their ballot, up from 38% the week before.

By October 25, around 60 million votes had been reported by election offices, but this number, which is rising by about 5 million per day, lags our estimate, since it takes time for voters to mail their ballots, for ballots to be processed, and reported. With 8 days still left to go, YouGov expects around 85 million people to have voted by the end of this week

Democratic candidate Joe Biden is leading Republican incumbent Donald Trump by 66% to 32% among those who have already voted. Among all likely voters Biden holds a 12-point lead.

See the toplines and crosstabs from this week’s Yahoo News/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The Yahoo! News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,500 U.S. registered voters interviewed online between October 23-25, 2020. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 Presidential vote, registration status, geographic region, and news interest. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S registered voters. The margin of error for the entire sample is ±3.0%