One in four Republicans think Donald Trump is likely to regain the presidency in 2021

September 17, 2021, 7:00 PM GMT+0

More than one in four Republicans believe that former President Donald Trump is likely to be reinstated as president in 2021 – more than twice the share of Democrats and Independents, according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll.

Trump remains a popular figure among Republicans. Four in five have a favorable opinion of him. More than three in four Republicans attribute little or no blame to Trump for what happened January 6. That’s the day when people entered the Capitol with the intent of stopping Congress from the certification of November’s presidential election ballots, showing that Joe Biden had defeated Trump. Most Democrats and nearly half of Independents do blame Trump for the events of January 6.

The belief in a likely Trump return to the White House is nearly twice as common among the quarter of Republicans with a favorable opinion of the people who entered the Capitol on January 6. However, more than twice as many Republicans have an unfavorable view of the people who participated in the Capitol takeover as have a favorable view. Overall, one in six adults think favorably of the demonstrators, while two-thirds do not. Most Americans want to see the January 6 participants prosecuted; half of Republicans agree.

A Trump reinstatement may be the goal of some of the people who intend to participate in this weekend’s demonstration in Washington, D.C., a rally in support of the people charged in the January 6 attack on the Capitol. As of this week, only one in 10 people had heard a lot about the rally planned for Saturday. More than half had heard nothing. More than twice the share of Democrats have heard a lot about the rally as the share of Republicans who have heard a lot about it.

The Capitol Police are re-installing the fencing placed around the Capitol Building after January 6. It had been removed only two months ago. The public is narrowly in favor of fencing around the Capitol building: 47% approve, while 38% disapprove, including 55% of Republicans and 49% of Independents. (The poll’s question asked about fencing in general, not specifying its installation as part of security measures for a specific demonstration.)

See the toplines and crosstabs from this Economist/YouGov poll

Methodology: The Economist survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,500 US Adult Citizens interviewed online between September 12 - 14, 2021. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the US Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 Presidential vote, registration status, geographic region, and news interest. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all US citizens. The margin of error is approximately 2.7% for the overall sample.