Democratic President Barack Obama holds a comfortable lead over Republican candidate Mitt Romney in Minnesota, according to a poll of 873 registered voters conducted by YouGov. Obama leads Romney by nine points, 50-41%.
Partisan loyalty is extremely strong on both sides. 95% of Democrats intend to vote for Obama; 92% of Republicans intend to vote for Romney.
Independents lean in Romney’s direction, 46%-41%.
Women favor Obama (54%-39%), while men are close to evenly divided (46% Obama – 44% Romney).
Obama is far ahead of Romney in the Twin Cities Core region (63%-29%) and in the state’s far northern region (51%-42%). Obama holds a nominal lead in the Eastern Suburbs (48%-45%).
Romney leads in the Collar Counties region (52%-39%), and the state’s Southern region (53%-37%).
The oldest voters age 65+ favor Romney (54%-37%). The youngest under age 30 favor Obama (59%-28%).
Incumbent Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar has a sizeable advantage over Republican challenger Kurt Bills, 49%-34%.
Voters in Minnesota are leaning towards Democrat in terms of their congressional vote intentions. 46% intend to vote for the Democratic candidate in their House districts, while 40% intend to vote for the Republican candidate.
Sampling method: Respondents were selected from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.
Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.
Number of respondents: 873 registered voters statewide.
Margin of error ± 3.7% (adjusted for weighting).
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