How Democrats and Republicans plan to cast their ballots in November

Linley SandersData Journalist
October 14, 2022, 6:29 PM GMT+0

As was the case during the 2020 presidential election, there are partisan differences in how Americans intend to cast their ballots in November’s elections. The bulk of people who say they will vote on Election Day (November 8) will vote Republican, while most people who plan to cast their ballots before Election Day will vote Democratic.

A majority of likely voters (57%) who say they will vote in-person on Election Day say they will vote for the Republican candidate in the district where they live. Meanwhile, 61% of likely voters who plan to vote by absentee ballot — either by mail or by dropping off their ballot at a vote center or drop box — say they will support the Democrats. Likely voters who plan to vote in-person prior to Election Day through early voting slightly favor Democrats: 50% of this group would pick the Democratic candidate, while 45% would choose the Republican. (Likely voters are defined as registered voters who say they will "definitely" or "probably" vote in the upcoming election, or who say they already have voted.)

Changes in voting rules and regulations may have an impact, as 27% of Americans who voted in 2020 plan to vote this year using a different voting method than they did in 2020, including 19% of 2020 in-person Election Day voters, 39% of 2020 in-person early voters, and 24% of 2020 voters who cast their ballot by mail.

— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article

Polling by the Economist/YouGov was conducted on October 8 - 11, 2022 among 1,500 U.S. adult citizens. Explore more on the methodology and data for this Economist/YouGov poll.

Image: Adobe Stock (Alcorn Imagery)