October 16, 2012, 7:00 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama holds a marginal, 1-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Florida, 48% Obama to 47% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 1,244 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll).

In Florida (Oct 4-11):

Florida divides strongly along partisan lines, as 96% of Democrats are sticking with Obama and 93% of Republicans are voting for Romney.

Romney enjoys a wide lead among Florida likely voters who are Independents, 50% for Romney and 38% for Obama.

Women favor Obama by 55%-40%, while men favor Romney, 54% Romney-41% Obama.

Obama enjoys a solid 57%-40% advantage in Miami and South Florida, and he holds a nominal 49%-47% lead in the Tampa area. Romney leads big in south central Florida, 60% Romney-37% Obama, and Romney holds a nominal lead in the Panhandle (51%-47%) and the central Atlantic coast (46%-43%).

The oldest likely voters age 65+ favor Romney (63%-34%). Likely voters under age 45 favor Obama by a 2-to-1 margin.

Independent likely voters have moved sharply against Obama, as Romney’s lead among likely voters who are Independent has grown from 4 points in September to 12 points in October.

Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Barack Obama





Mitt Romney





Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson continues to hold a narrow 47%-42% lead over Republican Senate challenger Connie Mack IV. Nelson led by 45%-40% in September.

Voters in Florida are leaning toward voting for Republican candidates for the U.S. House, with 46% intending to vote for the Republican candidate for the House in their district, and 41% for the Democrat. The poll was conducted online October 4-11, 2012.

Sampling method: Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll. The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 88.4%.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 1,244 likely voters.

Margin of error ±4.0% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).