October 16, 2012, 7:00 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama holds a narrow, 4-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Iowa, 50% Obama to 46% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 545 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll).

In Iowa (Oct 4-11):

Iowa is somewhat partisan in its vote, as 86% of Democrats are sticking with Obama and 88% of Republicans are voting for Romney.

Obama enjoys a narrow lead among likely voters who are Independents, 50% for Obama and 44% for Romney.

Women favor Obama by 50%-44% while men are tied, 49% Obama-49% Romney.

Obama enjoys a large 57%-40% advantage in the Eastern cities, 55%-40% in east central Iowa, and 55%-41% in central Iowa. Romney leads by a 2-to-1 margin in western Iowa, 63%-31%.

The oldest likely voters age 65+ favor Romney (49% Romney-45% Obama), Baby Boomers favor Obama slightly (51% Obama-43% Romney), but Obama and Romney are running a close race among all likely voters under age 45 in Iowa.

Among likely voters who are Independents, Obama maintains a 6-point advantage (50%-44%), the same margin he held in September among this key swing group, 46%-40%.

Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Barack Obama





Mitt Romney





Likely voters in Iowa are divided in their choice for the U.S. House, as the Democratic House candidates are nominally ahead of the Republicans, with 41% intending to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district and 38% for the Republican. The poll was conducted online October 4-11, 2012.

Sampling method: Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll. The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 78.6%.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 545 likely voters.

Margin of error ±5.1% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).