October 16, 2012, 7:00 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama has moved out to a marginal lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Wisconsin, 51% Obama to 47% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 639 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll). The race was a dead heat in September.

In Wisconsin (Oct 4-11):

Wisconsin is a state with strong partisan loyalties, with 94% of Democrats sticking with Obama and 92% of Republicans voting for Romney.

The vote is close among likely voters who are Independents, 49% Romney-47% Obama.

Women favor Obama by 53%-45%, while men are tied, 49% Romney-49% Obama.

Obama enjoys a solid 54%-34% lead in Milwaukee County and a similar 65%-33% lead in the southwestern part of the Badger state. Romney easily wins the southeast excluding Milwaukee County by 56%-43% and Romney wins the northwestern corner of the state, 54%-42%. The contest is in the northeast, where Obama holds a marginal 51%-47% lead over Romney.

The oldest likely voters age 65+ favor Romney by solid margin over Obama (59% Romney-41% Obama), but Baby Boomers prefer Obama (52% Obama-44% Romney). Obama’s lead is even wider among those age 30-44 (59% Obama-38% Romney), while the youngest voters under age 30 tilt slightly to the Republican.

Among likely voters who are Independents, Romney held a solid lead over Obama in September, but Obama has all but closed that gap since then. Romney holds a nominal, 49% Romney-47% Obama lead among Independent likely voters now, after having led by 10 points, 52%-42% in our September poll soon after announcing his choice of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate.

Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Barack Obama





Mitt Romney





Democratic U.S. Representative Tammy Baldwin has moved out to 48%-43% lead among likely voters over Republican former Governor Tommy Thompson, in a race that showed Thompson ahead by four percentage points over Baldwin among likely voters in September.

When asked about the contest for the U.S. House in their Congressional district, likely voters are divided, with 46% intending to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district and 44% for the Republican. The poll was conducted online October 4-11, 2012.

Sampling method: Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll. The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 85.0%.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 639 likely voters. Margin of error ±4.9% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).