October 16, 2012, 7:00 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama holds a 14-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Connecticut, 53% Obama to 39% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 434 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll).

In Connecticut (Oct 4-11):

Partisan loyalty is not as strong as it is in other states, but 88% of Democrats are sticking with Obama and 79% of Republicans are voting for Romney.

Independents split evenly, 43% for Obama and 43% for Romney.

Women favor Obama by 58%-35%, while the race is closer among men in the Nutmeg state, 49% Obama-44% Romney.

Obama leads in the New York suburbs (55%-37%), around Hartford (55%-37%), in the Eastern part of the state (49%-43%).

Romney leads only in Western Connecticut (56% Romney-41% Obama).

The oldest voters age 65+ favor Obama by a small margin (51%-44%). The youngest under age 30 overwhelmingly favor Obama (72%-23%)

Net Change in Voter Intention:

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Barack Obama





Mitt Romney





In the state’s competitive U.S. Senate race, Democrat Chris Murphy narrowly leads Linda McMahon, 42%-40%. This represents a slight turnaround from September, during which time likely voters favored McMahon 45%-41%.

Likely voters in Connecticut are leaning decisively in favor of voting for Democratic candidates for the U.S. House, with 47% intending to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district, and 29% for the Republican.

The poll was conducted online October 4-11, 2012.

Sampling method: Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll. The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 67.9%.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 434 likely voters.

Margin of error ± 5.5% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters)

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters)