New Jersey

October 16, 2012, 7:00 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama holds a solid, 13-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in New Jersey, 54% Obama to 41% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 770 likely voters statewide (recontacted from an initial September poll).

In New Jersey (Oct 4-11):

Partisan loyalty is very strong on both sides, with 88% of Democrats and 93% of Republicans voting for their party’s presidential candidates.

Independents narrowly favor Obama, 48%-44%.

Women in the Garden State strongly favor Obama 57%-38%, while among men Obama is more narrowly ahead (52%-45%).

Obama enjoys wide leads over Romney in the Urban North and southern parts of the state (71%-27% and 57%-37%, respectively), and closer leads in the Suburban North and central parts of the state (50%-47% and 52%-43%, respectively).

Romney only leads in the state’s Northwest region (59%-34%).

The oldest voters age 65+ favor Romney (54%-42%), while the youngest under age 30 overwhelmingly favor Obama (80%-16%).

Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Barack Obama





Mitt Romney





In the state’s Senate race, incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Menendez holds a decisive advantage over GOP challenger Joe Kyrillos, leading 49%-32%.

Likely voters in New Jersey are more likely to vote for Democratic congressional candidates, with 45% intending to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district, and 36% intending to vote for the Republican.

The poll was conducted online October 4-11, 2012.

Sampling method: Respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov’s panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2005–2007 American Community Study. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the 2008 Current Population Survey Registration and Voting supplement and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Respondents were recontacted on October 4-11 for the second wave of the YouGov poll. ±The percentage of likely voters who were successfully recontacted was 74.6%.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, voter registration, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 770 likely voters. Margin of error 4.1% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).