New Jersey

November 04, 2012, 4:30 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama holds a 12-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in New Jersey, 53% Obama to 41% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 987 likely voters statewide.

In New Jersey (Oct 31-Nov 3):

Independents give Romney a 4-point lead, 46% for Romney and 42% for Obama.

Obama leads strongly in the Urban North area (69%-27%), and is fairly strong in the Center and South of New Jersey (52%-42% in both areas), while Romney has a strong lead in the Northwest (57% Romney-37% Obama) and a nominal 1-point lead in the Suburban North (46%-45%).

Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Oct 31-Nov 3

Sept 7-14

Oct 4-11

Oct 31-Nov 3

Barack Obama







Mitt Romney







Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Mendendez continues to hold a strong 51%-36% lead over Republican Senate challenger Joe Kyrillos.

The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012.

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3. Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 987 likely voters. Margin of error ±3.4% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters).

Click here for October 4-11 results (likely voters).

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).