New Hampshire

November 04, 2012, 4:30 PM GMT+0

Democratic President Barack Obama holds a marginal 4-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, 47% Obama to 43% Romney, in a YouGov poll of 690 likely voters statewide.

In New Hampshire (Oct 31-Nov 3):

Independents favor Obama marginally, 44%-40% over Mitt Romney.

Obama leads in the CT Valley, 49%-29%, and on the New Hampshire Seacoast 50%-40%. In all the other regions in the state, it is more closely contested.

Net Change in Voter Intention (Likely Voters)

Sept 7-14

Oct 31-Nov 3

Sept 7-14

Oct 31-Nov 3

Barack Obama





Mitt Romney





The poll was conducted online October 31-November 3, 2012

Sampling method: Respondents were selected using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by age, gender, race, education, and region) was selected from the 2010 American Community Survey. Voter registration, turnout, religion, news interest, minor party identification, and non-placement on an ideology scale, were imputed from the Registration and Voting Supplements of the 2008 and 2010 Current Population Surveys and the Pew Religion in American Life Survey. Matching respondents were selected from the YouGov panel, an opt-in Internet panel.

Some respondents were initially selected on September 7-14 from YouGov¹s panel, then recontacted on October 4-11 and again on October 31-November 3. Others were selected for the first time on October 31-November 3.

Weighting: The sample was weighted using propensity scores based on age, gender, race, education, news interest, and non-placement on an ideology scale.

Number of respondents: 690 likely voters. Margin of error ±4.1% (adjusted for weighting).

Click here for September 7-14 results (registered voters)

Click here for October 31-November 3 results (likely voters).