Republicans on Palin: Just 40% Think She Could Win in 2012 - Down 22 Points in a Year

June 02, 2011, 5:51 PM GMT+0

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin may be inching closer to a Presidential run, but as she moves closer to running, her support from Republicans may be declining. The latest Economist/YouGov Poll suggests that Republicans are less likely now than they were a year ago to think she would be an effective President or to think she could defeat the incumbent, Barack Obama.

Just 40% of Republicans believe Palin would be likely to defeat President Obama, down from 62% last July. The percentage that thinks it is likely she would lose has more than doubled since then, from 23% a year ago to 47% now. 

Belief Palin would be an effective President has also declined among Republicans, from 66% a year ago to just half today. More than one in four Republicans says she does not have the ability to be an effective President, more than say that about any of the other possible Republican candidates, with the exception of Texas Congressman Ron Paul. 

Republicans agree with Palin’s views on issues just about as much as they did a year ago. Six in ten say she represents the views of most Republicans. Two out of three believe she understands the complex issues a President must deal with, about as many as did a year ago. And even more think she cares about them and shares their values.

In a head-to-head matchup among all registered voters, Palin fares poorly, trailing President Obama by 17 points. She loses to Obama among independents. Two other possible Republican candidates, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, also trail Obama in this poll, though by smaller margins. In both those cases, there are more undecided voters, and independents are closely divided. 

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