Polls are used for asking who people plan to vote for in upcoming elections — and also for finding out which movies they think should win an Oscar. But how do Americans interpret the results of polls about policies?
Most Americans think a poll showing that 55% of people support a policy means the poll has majority support, but only 29% see it as a consensus. And support for a policy needs to be almost universal for Americans to consider the polling result an “overwhelming majority.” Majorities see 90% support and 99% support — but not 70% support — as overwhelming. As for policies with 51% support in a survey, men are much more likely than women to think the policy is favored by a majority or by most people. Americans without college degrees are far more likely than those with college degrees to be unsure whether survey results represent a majority, a plurality, or any of the other descriptions polled.
Those are some of the findings from a series of recent YouGov polls asking Americans how they interpret the results of public opinion surveys. One survey described hypothetical surveys showing that 55%, 70%, or 90% of people supported a policy and asked whether the following descriptions applied to each of those levels of support: a majority, a vast majority, a plurality, a consensus, most people, and an overwhelming majority. Another poll asked the same questions about polls finding 51% and 99% support for a policy.
Majorities of Americans think surveys showing 51%, 55%, 70%, 90%, and 99% support for a policy reflect majority support in each case. However, few see 51% or 55% support as a “vast majority,” while half see 70% support as a vast majority. The only survey results polled that qualify as an “overwhelming majority” to majorities of Americans are 90% and 99% support for a policy. When a policy has 70% support, only 32% of Americans see that as overwhelming. Similarly, while majorities of Americans think polling results of 70%, 90%, or 99% support can be described as “most people” supporting a policy, they are divided on whether a policy with 51% support does or does not constitute most people (43% vs. 45%).
"Majority" is used more freely to describe results than both "consensus" and "plurality." Even when a hypothetical policy has 99% support in a survey, only 66% of Americans consider that a consensus. That figure is 55% for a survey showing 90% support. And while 66% of Americans see 70% support as constituting most people, only 44% see it as a consensus.
"Plurality" — an option that gets more support than any of the other options but does not receive more than 50% support — is also less likely to be seen as applying to poll results than "majority," "most people," and even "consensus." That’s primarily because many Americans are unsure whether “a plurality” applies to any survey result. For each level of support polled about, between 25% and 42% of Americans are not sure if it represents a plurality — a much higher level of uncertainty than for other phrases. For example, Americans are divided between thinking 51% support in a poll is a plurality (33%), is not a plurality (35%), and being unsure (32%). For 55% and 70% support, a plurality of Americans are unsure whether the term "plurality" applies.
There is one notable exception to the expected pattern that generally, more Americans apply terms such as “a consensus” and “most people” to survey results that show higher levels of policy support — for example, that 90% support is more likely than 70% support to be considered a vast majority. However, Americans often see 51% support in a poll as more substantial than 55% support. While 43% of people see 51% support as “most people,” only 33% think the same of 55% support. There is a similar pattern for descriptions of a vast majority, a consensus, and an overwhelming majority: 51% support is more likely than 55% support to be seen as meeting each description.
As for 51% support for a policy — a result that pollsters would be likely to describe as either about half of people or a slim majority — men are more likely than women to apply terms that indicate substantial support. For example, 52% of men think 51% support in a survey's results constitutes “most people,” but only 34% of women think the same. Similarly, while 73% of men think 51% support represents a majority, only 58% of women agree. Men also are more likely than women to think that 51% support represents a vast majority, a consensus, an overwhelming majority, and a plurality.
How do Americans with and without four-year college degrees interpret survey results on policy support? Americans without college degrees are more likely than those with college degrees to think “a vast majority” and “an overwhelming majority” apply to 55% and 51% support for a policy in a poll. For example, 21% of Americans without a college degree think 51% constitutes a vast majority, compared to only 10% of Americans with a college degree. The proportion of Americans without and with college degrees who see 51% support as an overwhelming majority are 15% and 6%, respectively.
In most other cases, Americans with a college degree are more likely to say any of the descriptions polled about apply to any of the levels of support polled about. 90% of Americans with college degrees see 90% support as a vast majority, compared to only 72% without college degrees. Similarly, Americans with college degrees are more likely than those without to see 70%, 90%, and 99% support as a vast majority, a plurality, a consensus, most people, and an overwhelming majority.
These differences are mostly driven by the much higher uncertainty about characterizing survey results among Americans without college degrees. For example, 15% of Americans without a college degree are unsure whether 51% counts as a majority, compared to only 5% of those with a college degree. Even when a poll shows that 99% of people support a policy, Americans without a college degree are much more likely than those with one (13%) to be unsure whether the result is a vast majority (13% vs. 5%).
— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article
See the results for the YouGov poll about 55%, 70%, and 90% support and the results for the YouGov poll about 51% and 99% support
Methodology: The YouGov poll on 55%, 70%, and 90% support was conducted on March 28 - April 4, 2024. The YouGov poll on 51% and 99% support was conducted on March 29 - April 4, 2024. They were conducted online among 1,006 U.S. adult citizens and 1,027 U.S. adult citizens, respectively. For each, respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel using sample matching. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 4%.
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