The election, Hunter Biden, War, and IVF: the June 16 - 18, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll

David MontgomerySenior data journalist
Taylor OrthDirector of Survey Data Journalism
Paul TeasU.S. News elections intern
June 20, 2024, 8:25 PM GMT+0

This week’s Economist/YouGov poll covers the election, the trial of Hunter Biden, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. claims, wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the G7 summit, abortion, contraception, and IVF.

The 2024 election

  • Registered voters remain roughly evenly divided in their November presidential preference: 42% say they intend to vote Biden, 42% favor Trump
  • Biden leads among registered voters under the age of 45, among women, among Black and Hispanic Americans, and among those with annual family incomes of at least $100,000
  • Trump leads among men, among white Americans, and among registered voters who are 45 or older
  • Trump has a 53-percentage-point lead among white Christians who describe themselves as born-again or evangelical
  • White voters who do not consider themselves born-again or evangelical Christians favor Biden by 5 points
  • Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. continues to receive limited support — 4%, according to this poll
  • Four and a half months before Election Day, just 8% of registered voters say they are undecided; 2% say they won't vote
  • Biden and Trump each have the confidence of less than half of registered voters that they can deal wisely with an international crisis
  • Trump fares slightly better than Biden on confidence he would deal wisely with an international crisis — 43% confident vs. 38% confident — thanks to positive near-unanimous confidence among his supporters

The trial of Hunter Biden

  • Two-thirds of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of the conviction of Hunter Biden on charges related to lying about his drug use when purchasing a gun
  • 62% of Joe Biden supporters and 86% of Donald Trump supporters approve of the Hunter Biden verdict
  • Opinion of the Hunter Biden conviction has a smaller partisan divide than did opinion of Trump’s conviction in last month’s hush money trial
  • Nearly all Joe Biden supporters approved of the Trump verdict; nearly all Trump supporters did not
  • Joe Biden and Donald Trump supporters are nearly equally likely to view the Hunter Biden trial as having been conducted fairly (64% vs. 68%)
  • Majorities of both groups of supporters — 71% of Joe Biden's and 85% of Donald Trump's — say Joe Biden should not pardon Hunter Biden

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. claims

  • This poll asked about several controversial or fringe theories put forward by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. before and during his ongoing presidential campaign
  • 39% of Americans — including 55% of people with a favorable view of Kennedy — believe it is definitely or probably true that "5G cellular networks are being used for mass surveillance"
  • 36%, including 47% of those favorable towards Kennedy, believe it's likely that "the CIA was involved in the assassination of President John F. Kennedy" — Kennedy's uncle
  • 25% — including 35% of those favorable towards Kennedy — believe it's likely that "vaccines have been shown to cause autism"
  • People with favorable views of Donald Trump are at least as likely to believe each of these claims as are people with favorable views of Kennedy, and far more likely than are people who hold positive views of Joe Biden

Wars in Ukraine and Gaza

  • Nearly one-third of Americans (30%) want the U.S. to decrease military aid to Ukraine; 24% want to increase it
  • 33% would favor decreasing military aid to Israel; 19% want to increase it
  • Slightly more Americans strongly or somewhat approve of the 10-year agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine than disapprove of it (44% vs. 34%); the agreement would result in assistance, training, and stronger cooperation on security and the economy
  • Democrats approve of the agreement with Ukraine by 70% to 12%; the equivalent figures for Republicans are 28% and 54%
  • Americans continue to have far more favorable opinions of Ukraine President Vlodymyr Zelensky than they do of Russia President Vladimir Putin
  • Americans are now more likely to say Russia is winning the war than to say Ukraine is, and to say that Russia is more likely to win eventually
  • More Americans say neither Russia nor Ukraine is winning the war than the combined shares who say either country is winning: 44% say neither, 22% say Russia, and 11% say Ukraine
  • One-third (33%) of Americans sympathize more with Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 16% sympathize more with the Palestinians, and 26% sympathize equally with both
  • 30% say Israel’s response to the Hamas attack has been too harsh, while 17% say it has been not harsh enough
  • 46% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans say Israel’s response to the Hamas attack has been too harsh
  • Americans are closely divided on whether or not Israel has violated international law in Gaza — 33% say it has and 29% say it hasn't

The G7 summit

  • Only 9% of Americans heard a lot about the G7 summit of world leaders held in Italy; 44% heard a little
  • Democrats were slightly more likely than Republicans to have heard something about the G7 summit (62% vs. 56%)

Abortion, Contraception, and IVF

  • 56% of Americans strongly or somewhat support keeping abortion-inducing drugs available by prescription; 26% oppose it
  • 74% of Democrats support keeping the drugs legal while 10% are opposed; among Republicans the figures are 39% and 44%
  • 59% support congressional legislation legalizing contraception nationally while 14% are opposed
  • Democrats support the legalization of contraception nationally by 82% to 4%; Republicans also are more likely to support than oppose it, by 41% to 26%
  • 66% of Americans say in vitro fertilization (IVF) should be legal, while 9% say it should be illegal
  • 69% say IVF is morally acceptable (31%) or not a moral issue (38%); only 9% call it morally wrong
  • Only 29% know someone who has used IVF treatment

— Carl Bialik contributed to this article

See the toplines and crosstabs for the June 16 - 18, 2024 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,600 U.S. adult citizens from June 16 - 18, 2024. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to November 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.

Image: Getty