YouGov polled seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – between July 4 - 12, 2024 for the Times and SAY24, a joint project of Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities.
The poll shows the long odds President Joe Biden faces for getting re-elected. He trails in all seven states, six of which he won in 2020 — a significant decline from his position in those states in March.
Voters themselves think that Biden is in trouble. In none of the states did more voters think Biden was more likely to win than Trump.
Among Biden's challenges: Views of the economy remain pessimistic. In each state at least two-thirds of registered voters describe the national economy as fair or poor, as opposed to excellent or good. Majorities in each state are similarly downbeat about their state's economy. Expectations are low for economic improvement. In each state the share who think the national economy is getting worse far outnumber the share who think it’s getting better, and the same goes for each state’s economy.
The positive news for Democrats in the poll is the performance of their Senate candidates in the same states. There are Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin this year. In each state a Democrat holds the seat now; two are open races and three seats are being defended by incumbent Democrats. And in each state the Democratic candidate is running ahead of Biden, while leading their Republican opponent by a margin of at least 7 points.
See the results for this YouGov poll
Methodology: The surveys were conducted between July 4 - 12, 2024 for The Times and the SAY24 project for Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities. The sample size for each state was 1,000, except in Arizona and Wisconsin (where it was 900) and Nevada (where it was 800). These were recontacts of respondents who were interviewed in March for the SAY24 project. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2020 Presidential vote and partisan identification. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters living in each state. The margin of error for a percentage based upon the entire sample in each state survey is between approximately 3% and 5%. The margin of error is larger for subsamples and differences of percentages.
Image: Getty (Alex Wong / Staff)
